Related papers: Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave…

Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of…

Bayesian modeling helps applied researchers articulate assumptions about their data and develop models tailored for specific applications. Thanks to good methods for approximate posterior inference, researchers can now easily build, use,…

The detection of nanoHertz gravitational waves through pulsar timing arrays hinges on identifying a common stochastic process affecting all pulsars in a correlated way across the sky. In the presence of other deterministic and stochastic…

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

One of the goals of gravitational-wave astrophysics is to infer the number and properties of the formation channels of binary black holes (BBHs); to do so, one must be able to connect various models with the data. We explore benefits and…

We present a comprehensive assessment of multiparameter tests of general relativity (GR) in the inspiral regime of compact binary coalescences using principal component analysis (PCA). Our analysis is based on an extensive set of simulated…

With the improvement in sensitivity of gravitational wave (GW) detectors and the increasing diversity of GW sources, there is a strong need for accurate GW waveform models for data analysis. While the current model accuracy assessments…

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

The growing number of gravitational-wave (GW) observations allows for constraints to be placed on the underlying population of black holes; current estimates show that black hole spins are small, with binaries more likely to have comparable…

As the number of gravitational-wave transient detections grows, the inclusion of marginally significant events in gravitational-wave catalogs will lead to increasing contamination from false positives. In this paper, we address the question…

Gravitational wave observations of binary black hole mergers probe their astrophysical origins via the binary spin, namely the spin magnitudes and directions of each component black hole, together described by six degrees of freedom.…

Gravitational-wave observations have revealed sources whose unusual properties challenge our understanding of compact-binary formation. Inferring the formation processes that are best able to reproduce such events may therefore yield key…

Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) attempts to address model misspecification in a standard Bayesian setup by tempering the likelihood. The likelihood is raised to a fractional power, called the learning rate, which reduces its importance…

In recent years, research unveiled more and more evidence for the so-called Bayesian Brain Paradigm, i.e. the human brain is interpreted as a probabilistic inference machine and Bayesian modelling approaches are hence used successfully. One…

Checking how well a fitted model explains the data is one of the most fundamental parts of a Bayesian data analysis. However, existing model checking methods suffer from trade-offs between being well-calibrated, automated, and…

Gravitational-wave (GW) catalogs are rapidly increasing in number, allowing for robust statistical analyses of the population of compact binaries. Nonetheless, GW inference of cosmology has typically relied on additional electromagnetic…

This article addresses issues of model criticism and model comparison in Bayesian contexts, and focusses on the use of the so-called posterior predictive p-values (ppp values). These involve a general discrepancy or conflict measure and…

Gravitational wave measurements will provide insight into the population of coalescing compact binaries throughout the universe. We describe and demonstrate a flexible parametric method to infer the event rate as a function of compact…

Gravitational-wave events are interpreted in terms of Bayesian posteriors for their source properties inferred under unphysical reference priors. Though these parameter estimates are important intermediate data products for downstream…

Gravitational-wave (GW) observations of binary black-hole (BBH) coalescences are expected to address outstanding questions in astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. Realizing the full discovery potential of upcoming…