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Evidential deep learning, built upon belief theory and subjective logic, offers a principled and computationally efficient way to turn a deterministic neural network uncertainty-aware. The resultant evidential models can quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Deep Pandey , Qi Yu

Epistemic uncertainty is crucial for safety-critical applications and data acquisition tasks. Yet, we find an important phenomenon in deep learning models: an epistemic uncertainty collapse as model complexity increases, challenging the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Andreas Kirsch

Reliable uncertainty estimation has become a crucial requirement for the industrial deployment of deep learning algorithms, particularly in high-risk applications such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis. However, mainstream…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Junyu Gao , Mengyuan Chen , Liangyu Xiang , Changsheng Xu

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Mohammed Fellaji , Frédéric Pennerath , Brieuc Conan-Guez , Miguel Couceiro

Neural networks are ubiquitous in many tasks, but trusting their predictions is an open issue. Uncertainty quantification is required for many applications, and disentangled aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are best. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Daniel Saromo

Evidential deep learning (EDL) has shown remarkable success in uncertainty estimation. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and classification tasks. The limited OOD detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-07 Tanwi Mallick , Prasanna Balaprakash , Jane Macfarlane

Traditional Evidence Deep Learning (EDL) methods rely on static hyperparameter for uncertainty calibration, limiting their adaptability in dynamic data distributions, which results in poor calibration and generalization in high-risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Zhen Yang , Yansong Ma , Lei Chen

Ensemble learning serves as a straightforward way to improve the performance of almost any machine learning algorithm. Existing deep ensemble methods usually naively train many different models and then aggregate their predictions. This is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Le Zhang , Qibin Hou , Yun Liu , Jia-Wang Bian , Xun Xu , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Ce Zhu

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic…

Seismic data often contain gaps due to various obstacles in the investigated area and recording instrument failures. Deep learning techniques offer promising solutions for reconstructing missing data parts by leveraging existing…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-04-04 Mohammad Mahdi Abedi , David Pardo , Tariq Alkhalifah

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Ensembles of machine learning models yield improved system performance as well as robust and interpretable uncertainty estimates; however, their inference costs may often be prohibitively high. \emph{Ensemble Distribution Distillation} is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Max Ryabinin , Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Although deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a number of vision tasks, generalization over high dimensional multi-modal data, and reliable predictive uncertainty estimation are still active areas of research.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Samarth Sinha , Homanga Bharadhwaj , Anirudh Goyal , Hugo Larochelle , Animesh Garg , Florian Shkurti

Deep neural networks have become the default choice for many of the machine learning tasks such as classification and regression. Dropout, a method commonly used to improve the convergence of deep neural networks, generates an ensemble of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-11 Tal Kachman , Michal Moshkovitz , Michal Rosen-Zvi

For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Andrey Malinin , Liudmila Prokhorenkova , Aleksei Ustimenko

This paper investigates the deep learning optimization problem with softmax cross-entropy loss. We propose a layer separation strategy to alleviate the strong nonconvexity encountered during training deep networks. For cross-entropy models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yaru Liu , Michael K. Ng , Yiqi Gu

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Deep learning has emerged as a technique of choice for rapid feature extraction across imaging disciplines, allowing rapid conversion of the data streams to spatial or spatiotemporal arrays of features of interest. However, applications of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-01-25 Ayana Ghosh , Bobby G. Sumpter , Ondrej Dyck , Sergei V. Kalinin , Maxim Ziatdinov