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In this paper we provide a quantitative analysis to the concept of arbitrage, that allows to deal with model uncertainty without imposing the no-arbitrage condition. In markets that admit ``small arbitrage", we can still make sense of the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-05 Beatrice Acciaio , Julio Backhoff , Gudmund Pammer

Prepayment risk embedded in fixed-rate mortgages forms a significant fraction of a financial institution's exposure, and it receives particular attention because of the magnitude of the underlying market. The embedded prepayment option…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-29 Leonardo Perotti , Lech A. Grzelak , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

Understanding the dependence relationship of credit spreads of corporate bonds is important for risk management. Vine copula models with tail dependence are used to analyze a credit spread dataset of Chinese corporate bonds, understand the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Shenyi Pan , Harry Joe , Guofu Li

The constantly expanding frequency and loss affected by natural disasters pose a severe challenge to the traditional catastrophe insurance market. This paper aims to develop an innovative framework of pricing catastrophic bonds triggered by…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-03 Yifan Tang , Chengxiu Ling , Conghua Wen

We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-27 Stephane Crepey , Andrea Macrina , Tuyet Mai Nguyen , David Skovmand

We study capital requirements for bounded financial positions defined as the minimum amount of capital to invest in a chosen eligible asset targeting a pre-specified acceptability test. We allow for general acceptance sets and general…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-01-16 Walter Farkas , Pablo Koch-Medina , Cosimo Munari

Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-19 Roberto Baviera

A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-07 Meng-Jou Lu , Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Modelling claim frequency and severity for non-life insurance pricing predominantly relies on generalised linear models, with gradient-boosted machines as the leading machine learning alternative. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) present a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-26 Bruno Deprez , Wouter Verbeke , Tim Verdonck

Motivated by practical applications, we explore the constrained multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem within a market characterized by a dynamic factor model. This model captures predictability in asset returns driven by…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-26 Jianjun Gao , Chengneng Jin , Yun Shi , Xiangyu Cui

The risk premium is one of main concepts in mathematical finance. It is a measure of the trade-offs investors make between return and risk and is defined by the excess return relative to the risk-free interest rate that is earned from an…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-29 Jihun Han , Hyungbin Park

On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-27 John Alberg , Zachary C. Lipton

In this work we consider three problems of the standard market approach to pricing of credit index options: the definition of the index spread is not valid in general, the usually considered payoff leads to a pricing which is not always…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-23 Massimo Morini , Damiano Brigo

The principal portfolios of the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are analyzed and found to have remarkable hedging and leveraging properties. Principal portfolios implement a recasting of any correlated asset set of N risky…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-06-21 M. Hossein Partovi

We tackle the problem of pricing Chinese convertible bonds(CCBs) using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming. At each exercise time, we use the state variables of the underlying stock to regress the continuation value, and apply…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-13 Yu Liu

Different from existing literature on testing the macro-spanning hypothesis of bond risk premia, which only considers mean regressions, this paper investigates whether the yield curve represented by CP factor (Cochrane and Piazzesi, 2005)…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-07 Xiaosai Liao , Xinjue Li , Qingliang Fan

In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-11-27 Foad Shokrollahi

Using simple particle models of limit order markets, we argue that mid-term over-diffusive price behaviour is inherent to the very nature of these markets. Several rules for rate changes are considered. We obtain analytical results for…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Damien Challet , Robin Stinchcombe

We use principle component analysis (PCA) of cross correlations in European government bonds and European stocks to investigate the systemic risk contained in the European economy. We tackle the task to visualize the evolution of risk,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-09 Jan Jurczyk , Alexander Eckrot

It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 Pierre Cizeau , Marc Potters , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud