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Conventional causal estimands, such as the average treatment effect (ATE), capture how the mean outcome in a population or subpopulation would change if all units were assigned to treatment versus control. Real-world policy changes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Xiang Zhou , Aleksei Opacic

Economists are often interested in estimating averages with respect to distributions of unobservables, such as moments of individual fixed-effects, or average partial effects in discrete choice models. For such quantities, we propose and…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-07 Stéphane Bonhomme , Martin Weidner

This paper presents with justifications a technique that is useful for the study of piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes (PDMDPs) with general policies and unbounded transition intensities. This technique produces an auxiliary…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-15 Xin Guo , Yi Zhang

We study data-driven learning of robust stochastic control for infinite-horizon systems with potentially continuous state and action spaces. In many managerial settings--supply chains, finance, manufacturing, services, and dynamic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-18 Shengbo Wang , Jason Meng , Nian Si , Jose Blanchet , Zhengyuan Zhou

Markov decision processes (MDPs) is viewed as an optimization of an objective function over certain linear operators over general function spaces. A new existence result is established for the existence of optimal policies in general MDPs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Abhishek Gupta , Aditya Mahajan

This paper develops a framework for identifying treatment effects when a policy simultaneously alters both the incentive to participate and the outcome of interest -- such as hiring decisions and wages in response to employment subsidies;…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-01 Haotian Deng

Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are crucial tools for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where direct deployment is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. When deployment environments are expected to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Harvineet Singh , Shalmali Joshi , Finale Doshi-Velez , Himabindu Lakkaraju

Dynamic treatment regimes are sequential decision rules that adapt treatment according to individual time-varying characteristics and outcomes to achieve optimal effects, with applications in precision medicine, personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuanshan Gao , Yang Bai , Yifan Cui

We consider finite model approximations of discrete-time partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) under the discounted cost criterion. After converting the original partially observed stochastic control problem to a fully…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-20 Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying the attributes of dynamical systems characterized as a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-06 Bo Wu , Niklas Lauffer , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Suda Bharadwaj , Zhe Xu , Ufuk Topcu

In this work we investigate an importance sampling approach for evaluating policies for a structurally time-varying factored Markov decision process (MDP), i.e. the policy's value is estimated with a high-probability confidence interval. In…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-07 Carmel Fiscko , Soummya Kar , Bruno Sinopoli

We consider risk-sensitive Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the MDP model is influenced by a parameter which takes values in a compact metric space. We identify sufficient conditions under which small perturbations in the model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Shiping Shao , Abhishek Gupta , William B. Haskell

This paper studies discrete-time average-cost infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with Borel state and action sets. It introduces new sufficient conditions for { the} validity of optimality inequalities and optimality…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Eugene A. Feinberg , Pavlo O. Kasyanov , Liliia S. Paliichuk

We study individual-based dynamics in finite populations, subject to randomly switching environmental conditions. These are inspired by models in which genes transition between on and off states, regulating underlying protein dynamics.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-18 Peter G. Hufton , Yen Ting Lin , Tobias Galla , Alan J. McKane

We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu , Wen Sun , Kaiwen Wang

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are a fundamental framework for decision-making under uncertainty and partial observability. Since in general optimal policies may require infinite memory, they are hard to implement…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Muqsit Azeem , Debraj Chakraborty , Sudeep Kanav , Jan Kretinsky

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Marnix Suilen , Thiago D. Simão , David Parker , Nils Jansen

We build on a previous statistical model for distributed systems and formulate it in a way that the deterministic and stochastic processes within the system are clearly separable. We show how internal fluctuations can be analysed in a…

adap-org · Physics 2009-10-22 Iqbal Adjali , José-Luis Fernández-Villacañas , Michael Gell

We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation for reinforcement learning, where the goal is to estimate the expected reward of a target policy $\pi$ using offline data collected by running a logging policy $\mu$. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Ming Yin , Yu-Xiang Wang

We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-23 Mert Demirer , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Greg Lewis , Victor Chernozhukov