Related papers: Estimating Dynamic Marginal Policy Effects under S…
Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…
We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) in partially observable environments with complex observations, with the goal of developing estimators whose guarantee avoids exponential dependence on the horizon. While such estimators exist for MDPs…
In many real-world problems, there is the possibility to configure, to a limited extent, some environmental parameters to improve the performance of a learning agent. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Configurable Markov Decision…
We propose empirical dynamic programming algorithms for Markov decision processes (MDPs). In these algorithms, the exact expectation in the Bellman operator in classical value iteration is replaced by an empirical estimate to get `empirical…
Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) are known to be NEXP-Complete and intractable to solve. However, for problems such as cooperative navigation, obstacle avoidance, and formation control, basic…
In applications of offline reinforcement learning to observational data, such as in healthcare or education, a general concern is that observed actions might be affected by unobserved factors, inducing confounding and biasing estimates…
This paper investigates MDPs with intermittent state information. We consider a scenario where the controller perceives the state information of the process via an unreliable communication channel. The transmissions of state information…
Off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the outcome of a new policy using historical data collected from a different policy. However, existing OPE methods cannot handle cases when the new policy introduces novel actions. This issue…
This work focuses on off-policy evaluation (OPE) with function approximation in infinite-horizon undiscounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). For MDPs that are ergodic and linear (i.e. where rewards and dynamics are linear in some known…
We present differentiable predictive control (DPC), a method for learning constrained neural control policies for linear systems with probabilistic performance guarantees. We employ automatic differentiation to obtain direct policy…
We extend the Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (BLP, 1995) random coefficients discrete-choice demand model, which underlies much recent empirical work in IO. We add interactive fixed effects in the form of a factor structure on the unobserved…
This paper deals with control of partially observable discrete-time stochastic systems. It introduces and studies Markov Decision Processes with Incomplete Information and with semi-uniform Feller transition probabilities. The important…
In this paper, we propose a novel policy iteration method, called dynamic policy programming (DPP), to estimate the optimal policy in the infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. We prove the finite-iteration and asymptotic l\infty-norm…
We propose policy gradient algorithms for robust infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with non-rectangular uncertainty sets, thereby addressing an open challenge in the robust MDP literature. Indeed, uncertainty sets that…
Policy evaluation in empirical microeconomics has been focusing on estimating the average treatment effect and more recently the heterogeneous treatment effects, often relying on the unconfoundedness assumption. We propose a method based on…
Using a novel toy nautical navigation environment, we show that dynamic programming can be used when only incomplete information about a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) is known. By incorporating uncertainty into our…
We address the challenge of quantifying Bayesian uncertainty and incorporating it in offline use cases of finite-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with unknown dynamics. Our approach provides a principled method to disentangle…
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) constructs confidence intervals for the value of a target policy using data generated under a different behavior policy. Most existing inference methods focus on fixed target policies and may fail when the target…
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning is an important problem in settings where experimentation is limited, such as education and healthcare. But, in these very same settings, observed actions are often confounded by…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are stochastic optimization problems that model situations where a decision maker controls a system based on its state. Partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are generalizations of MDPs where…