Related papers: Learning Nonlinear Regime Transitions via Semi-Par…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
This paper considers estimating the parameters in a regime-switching stochastic differential equation(SDE) driven by Normal Inverse Gaussian(NIG) noise. The model under consideration incorporates a continuous-time finite state Markov chain…
We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…
We show that nonequilibrium dynamics can play a constructive role in unsupervised machine learning by inducing the spontaneous emergence of latent-state cycles. We introduce a model in which visible and hidden variables interact through two…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
Accurately modeling robot dynamics is crucial to safe and efficient motion control. In this paper, we develop and apply an iterative learning semi-parametric model, with a neural network, to the task of autonomous racing with a Model…
Recently, a class of stochastic processes known as piecewise deterministic Markov processes has been used to define continuous-time Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with a number of attractive properties, including compatibility with…
Transition probability estimation plays a critical role in multi-state modeling, especially in clinical research. This paper investigates the application of semi-Markov and Markov renewal frameworks to the EBMT dataset, focusing on six…
The ultimate goal of regression analysis is to obtain information about the conditional distribution of a response given a set of explanatory variables. This goal is, however, seldom achieved because most established regression models only…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the…
In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes directly based on intensity processes for marked point processes. We show that this class satisfies the semi-Markov properties defined elsewhere in the literature. We…
While the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems is a fundamental building block of model-based reinforcement learning and feedback control, its sample complexity is only understood for systems that either have discrete states and…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or…
We study a phase transition in parameter learning of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We do this by generating sequences of observed symbols from given discrete HMMs with uniformly distributed transition probabilities and a noise level encoded…
We are interested in the connection between a metastable continuous state space Markov process (satisfying e.g. the Langevin or overdamped Langevin equation) and a jump Markov process in a discrete state space. More precisely, we use the…
Hidden semi-Markov models generalise hidden Markov models by explicitly modelling the time spent in a given state, the so-called dwell time, using some distribution defined on the natural numbers. While the (shifted) Poisson and negative…
Social learning strategies enable agents to infer the underlying true state of nature in a distributed manner by receiving private environmental signals and exchanging beliefs with their neighbors. Previous studies have extensively focused…
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from…
We propose a new flexible tensor model for multiple-equation regression that accounts for latent regime changes. The model allows for dynamic coefficients and multi-dimensional covariates that vary across equations. We assume the…