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Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to fully utilize the information in big or complex data. However, they can be difficult to estimate using standard approaches, and variational inference methods are a popular…

In this work, we propose the marginal structured SVM (MSSVM) for structured prediction with hidden variables. MSSVM properly accounts for the uncertainty of hidden variables, and can significantly outperform the previously proposed latent…

In extracting time series data from various sources, it is inevitable to compile variables measured at varying frequencies as this is often dependent on the source. Modeling from these data can be facilitated by aggregating high frequency…

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

Financial time series often exhibit skewness and heavy tails, making it essential to use models that incorporate these characteristics to ensure greater reliability in the results. Furthermore, allowing temporal variation in the skewness…

This paper introduces a dynamic minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model using nonlinear volatility dynamic models, based on high-frequency financial data. Specifically, we impose an autoregressive dynamic structure on MVP processes, which…

We propose a novel approach to sentiment data filtering for a portfolio of assets. In our framework, a dynamic factor model drives the evolution of the observed sentiment and allows to identify two distinct components: a long-term…

In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…

This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…

Return panels, covariances, and large feature matrices evolve one observation or one entry at a time, yet downstream models require an up-to-date low-rank factorization $A_t \approx U_t \Sigma_t V_t^\top$ on every tick -- a regime where…

Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…

Inference, prediction and control of complex dynamical systems from time series is important in many areas, including financial markets, power grid management, climate and weather modeling, or molecular dynamics. The analysis of such highly…

Understanding the micro-dynamics of asset prices in modern electronic order books is crucial for investors and regulators. In this paper, we use an order by order Eurostoxx database spanning over 3 years to analyze the joint dynamics of…

In financial trading, factor models are widely used to price assets and capture excess returns from mispricing. Recently, we have witnessed the rise of variational autoencoder-based latent factor models, which learn latent factors…

A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is commonly used to model multivariate time series, and there are many penalized methods to handle high dimensionality. However in terms of spatio-temporal data, most methods do not take the spatial and…

We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

We propose a parsimonious class of arbitrage-free, yields-only dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) with unspanned latent risks. To enable sequential estimation and forecasting, we develop a Sequential Monte Carlo framework that combines…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

We propose a novel framework for analyzing multivariate time series (MTS) data by integrating non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with vector autoregression (VAR). Termed NMF-VAR, this method models the coefficient matrix of NMF as a…