Related papers: Marking-Aware Sequential VaR Recalibration for Sta…

Mainstream approximate action-value iteration reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms suffer from overestimation bias, leading to suboptimal policies in high-variance stochastic environments. Quantile-based action-value iteration methods…

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…

Value-at-risk (VaR) is an established measure to assess risks in critical real-world applications with random environmental factors. This paper presents a novel VaR upper confidence bound (V-UCB) algorithm for maximizing the VaR of a…

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…

Sequential monitoring of randomized trials traditionally relies on parametric assumptions or asymptotic approximations. We discuss a family of nonparametric sequential tests - collectively called e-RT - for binary, event-only, and…

Calibration of option pricing models is routinely repeated as markets evolve, yet modern systems lack an operator for removing data from a calibrated model without full retraining. When quotes become stale, corrupted, or subject to deletion…

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelets basis functions and…

GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel…

This paper explores the implications of producing forecast distributions that are optimized according to scoring rules that are relevant to financial risk management. We assess the predictive performance of optimal forecasts from…

This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…

The Solvency II Directive and Solvency Assessment and Management (the South African equivalent) give a Solvency Capital Requirement which is based on a 99.5% Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation. This calculation involves aggregating individual…

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying…

Autonomous cyber and cyber-physical systems need to perform decision-making, learning, and control in unknown environments. Such decision-making can be sensitive to multiple factors, including modeling errors, changes in costs, and impacts…

Many modern machine learning tasks require models with high tail performance, i.e. high performance over the worst-off samples in the dataset. This problem has been widely studied in fields such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and…

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

The problem of finding the optimal portfolio for investors is called the portfolio optimization problem. Such problem mainly concerns the expectation and variability of return (i.e., mean and variance). Although the variance would be the…

One noted issue of vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQ-VAE) is that the learned discrete representation uses only a fraction of the full capacity of the codebook, also known as codebook collapse. We hypothesize that the training…

We develop an arbitrage-free framework for consistent valuation of derivative trades with collateralization, counterparty credit gap risk, and funding costs, following the approach first proposed by Pallavicini and co-authors in 2011. Based…

Sequential Recommendation (SR) aims to predict the next interaction of a user based on their behavior sequence, where complementary relations often provide essential signals for predicting the next item. However, mainstream models relying…