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The frequentist variability of Bayesian posterior expectations can provide meaningful measures of uncertainty even when models are misspecified. Classical methods to asymptotically approximate the frequentist covariance of Bayesian…
Though introduced nearly 50 years ago, the infinitesimal jackknife (IJ) remains a popular modern tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty in complex estimation settings. In particular, when supervised learning ensembles are constructed…
The error or variability of machine learning algorithms is often assessed by repeatedly re-fitting a model with different weighted versions of the observed data. The ubiquitous tools of cross-validation (CV) and the bootstrap are examples…
Deep learning models achieve high predictive accuracy across a broad spectrum of tasks, but rigorously quantifying their predictive uncertainty remains challenging. Usable estimates of predictive uncertainty should (1) cover the true…
Bias correction can often improve the finite sample performance of estimators. We show that the choice of bias correction method has no effect on the higher-order variance of semiparametrically efficient parametric estimators, so long as…
In Bayesian quantile regression, the most commonly used likelihood is the asymmetric Laplace (AL) likelihood. The reason for this choice is not that it is a plausible data-generating model but that the corresponding maximum likelihood…
We investigate popular resampling methods for estimating the uncertainty of statistical models, such as subsampling, bootstrap and the jackknife, and their performance in high-dimensional supervised regression tasks. We provide a tight…
We analyze bias correction methods using jackknife, bootstrap, and Taylor series. We focus on the binomial model, and consider the problem of bias correction for estimating $f(p)$, where $f \in C[0,1]$ is arbitrary. We characterize the…
We study the implications of including many covariates in a first-step estimate entering a two-step estimation procedure. We find that a first order bias emerges when the number of \textit{included} covariates is "large" relative to the…
Cross validation (CV) and the bootstrap are ubiquitous model-agnostic tools for assessing the error or variability of machine learning and statistical estimators. However, these methods require repeatedly re-fitting the model with different…
We give analytic methods for nonparametric bias reduction that remove the need for computationally intensive methods like the bootstrap and the jackknife. We call an estimate {\it $p$th order} if its bias has magnitude $n_0^{-p}$ as $n_0…
Jackknife instrumental variable estimation (JIVE) is a classic method to leverage many weak instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate linear structural models, overcoming the bias of standard methods like two-stage least squares. In this…
We propose a novel computationally low-cost method for estimating a general predictive measure of generalised Bayesian inference. The proposed method utilises posterior covariance and provides estimators of the Gibbs and the plugin…
We introduce a novel approach called the Bayesian Jackknife empirical likelihood method for analyzing survey data obtained from various unequal probability sampling designs. This method is particularly applicable to parameters described by…
Sequential trial emulation (STE) is an approach to estimating causal treatment effects by emulating a sequence of target trials from observational data. In STE, inverse probability weighting is commonly utilised to address time-varying…
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where $p<n$ but $p/n$ is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist…
Post-stratification is often used to estimate treatment effects with higher efficiency. However, the majority of existing post-stratification frameworks depend on prior knowledge of the distributions of covariates and assume that the units…
Standard Bayesian inference is known to be sensitive to model misspecification, leading to unreliable uncertainty quantification and poor predictive performance. However, finding generally applicable and computationally feasible methods for…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are instrumental in modelling sequential and time-series data. Yet, when using RNNs to inform decision-making, predictions by themselves are not sufficient; we also need estimates of predictive uncertainty.…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…