Related papers: Exceedance Probabilities for Large Earthquakes Fro…
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
The $b$-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law contains information that is essential for evaluating earthquake hazard and predicting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Estimates of $b$ are often based on seismic events whose magnitude…
This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of…
Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum.…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
We have written a new equation to study the statistics of earthquake distributions. We call this equation "the generalized logistic equation". The Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude formula was derived from the solution of the…
The identification of patterns in space, time, and magnitude, which could potentially encode the subsequent earthquake magnitude, represents a significant challenge in earthquake forecasting. A pivotal aspect of this endeavor involves the…
The time dependence of the parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude distribution is computed for foreshock sequences of earthquakes, correlated with the main shock, by using the geometric-growth model of earthquake focus, the…
The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…