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Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for optimizing an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In particular, the effectiveness of expected improvement (EI) has been demonstrated in a wide range of applications. However, theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-01 Shion Takeno , Yu Inatsu , Masayuki Karasuyama , Ichiro Takeuchi

Learning linear predictors with the logistic loss---both in stochastic and online settings---is a fundamental task in machine learning and statistics, with direct connections to classification and boosting. Existing "fast rates" for this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-17 Dylan J. Foster , Satyen Kale , Haipeng Luo , Mehryar Mohri , Karthik Sridharan

In the convex optimization approach to online regret minimization, many methods have been developed to guarantee a $O(\sqrt{T})$ bound on regret for subdifferentiable convex loss functions with bounded subgradients, by using a reduction to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-20 Arthur Flajolet , Patrick Jaillet

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-23 Rui M. Castro , Fredrik Hellström , Tim van Erven

We consider the problem of online linear regression on individual sequences. The goal in this paper is for the forecaster to output sequential predictions which are, after $T$ time rounds, almost as good as the ones output by the best…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-17 Sébastien Gerchinovitz , Jia Yuan Yu

We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a non-linear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Yu-Jie Zhang , Sheng-An Xu , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama

Achieving sample efficiency in online episodic reinforcement learning (RL) requires optimally balancing exploration and exploitation. When it comes to a finite-horizon episodic Markov decision process with $S$ states, $A$ actions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Gen Li , Laixi Shi , Yuxin Chen , Yuejie Chi

We study online prediction where regret of the algorithm is measured against a benchmark defined via evolving constraints. This framework captures online prediction on graphs, as well as other prediction problems with combinatorial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-15 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

Predicting the output of a dynamical system from streaming data is fundamental to real-time feedback control and decision-making. We first derive an autoregressive representation that relates future local outputs to asynchronous past…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-09 Jiachen Qian , Yang Zheng

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm has been predominantly used to approximate the maximum likelihood estimation of the location-scale Gaussian mixtures. However, when the models are over-specified, namely, the chosen number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-24 Tongzheng Ren , Fuheng Cui , Sujay Sanghavi , Nhat Ho

A stochastic combinatorial semi-bandit is an online learning problem where at each step a learning agent chooses a subset of ground items subject to constraints, and then observes stochastic weights of these items and receives their sum as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-08 Branislav Kveton , Zheng Wen , Azin Ashkan , Csaba Szepesvari

Online learning constitutes a mathematical and compelling framework to analyze sequential decision making problems in adversarial environments. The learner repeatedly chooses an action, the environment responds with an outcome, and then the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-05 Mehrdad Mahdavi , Tianbao Yang , Rong Jin

This paper investigates regret minimization, statistical inference, and their interplay in high-dimensional online decision-making based on the sparse linear context bandit model. We integrate the $\varepsilon$-greedy bandit algorithm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Congyuan Duan , Wanteng Ma , Jiashuo Jiang , Dong Xia

Bayesian optimization (BO) with Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models is a powerful black-box optimization method. Acquisition functions are a critical part of a BO algorithm as they determine how the new samples are selected. Some of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Jingyi Wang , Haowei Wang , Cosmin G. Petra , Nai-Yuan Chiang

We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Yury Polyanskiy , Yihong Wu

The Matrix Multiplicative Weight Update (MMWU) is a seminal online learning algorithm with numerous applications. Applied to the matrix version of the Learning from Expert Advice (LEA) problem on the $d$-dimensional spectraplex, it is well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Weiyuan Gong , Tongyang Li , Xinzhao Wang , Zhiyu Zhang

Theoretical results show that Bayesian methods can achieve lower bounds on regret for online logistic regression. In practice, however, such techniques may not be feasible especially for very large feature sets. Various approximations that,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-29 Gil I. Shamir , Wojciech Szpankowski

We study reinforcement learning with linear function approximation and adversarially changing cost functions, a setup that has mostly been considered under simplifying assumptions such as full information feedback or exploratory…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Uri Sherman , Tomer Koren , Yishay Mansour

Forecasting revenues by aggregating analyst forecasts is a fundamental problem in financial research and practice. A key objective in this context is to improve the accuracy of the forecast by optimizing two performance metrics: the hit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Henry D. van Eijk , Sujit K. Ghosh

We derive an alternative proof for the regret of Thompson sampling (\ts) in the stochastic linear bandit setting. While we obtain a regret bound of order $\widetilde{O}(d^{3/2}\sqrt{T})$ as in previous results, the proof sheds new light on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-06 Marc Abeille , Alessandro Lazaric