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Developing efficient solutions for inference problems in intelligent sensor networks is crucial for the next generation of location, tracking, and mapping services. This paper develops a scalable distributed probabilistic inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

In this paper, we propose an efficient importance sampling algorithm for rare event simulation under copula models. In the algorithm, the derived optimal probability measure is based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-07 Siang Cheng , Cheng-Der Fuh , Tianxiao Pang

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

We are studying the problems of modeling and inference for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. The focus is on linear and log-linear models. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-10 Paul Doukhan , Konstantinos Fokianos , Bård Støve , Dag Tjøstheim

Variational Inference (VI) is a method that approximates a difficult-to-compute posterior density using better behaved distributional families. VI is an alternative to the already well-studied Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method of…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-25 Neil Dey , Emmett B. Kendall

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Computer models play a crucial role in numerous scientific and engineering domains. To ensure the accuracy of simulations, it is essential to properly calibrate the input parameters of these models through statistical inference. While…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-07 Dongkyu Derek Cho , Won Chang , Jaewoo Park

Bayesian posterior inference is prevalent in various machine learning problems. Variational inference provides one way to approximate the posterior distribution, however its expressive power is limited and so is the accuracy of resulting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Guoqing Zheng , Yiming Yang , Jaime Carbonell

We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference method for Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression, by deriving a posterior over a learnable set of coresets: i.e., over pseudo-input/output, weighted pairs. Unlike former free-form…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Mert Ketenci , Adler Perotte , Noémie Elhadad , Iñigo Urteaga

In this article, a copula-based method for mixed regression models is proposed, where the conditional distribution of the response variable, given covariates, is modelled by a parametric family of continuous or discrete distributions, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-13 Pavel Krupskii , Bouchra R Nasri , Bruno N Remillard

Approximate Bayesian inference for models with computationally expensive, black-box likelihoods poses a significant challenge, especially when the posterior distribution is complex. Many inference methods struggle to explore the parameter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Francesco Silvestrin , Chengkun Li , Luigi Acerbi

Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-19 David Lopez-Paz , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-03 Ye Wang , David Dunson

We propose a robust and scalable variational Bayes (VB) framework designed to effectively handle contamination and outliers in dataset. Our approach partitions the data into $m$ disjoint subsets and formulates a joint optimization problem…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Jiawei Yan , Ju Liu , Weidong Liu , Jiyuan Tu

This paper provides a new methodology to analyze unobserved heterogeneity when observed characteristics are modeled nonlinearly. The proposed model builds on varying random coefficients (VRC) that are determined by nonlinear functions of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-05 Christoph Breunig

We introduce an optimization framework for variational inference based on the coupled free energy, extending variational inference techniques to account for the curved geometry of the coupled exponential family. This family includes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Kenric Nelson , Igor Oliveira , Amenah Al-Najafi , Fode Zhang , Hon Keung Tony Ng

We investigate the description of statistical field theories using Daubechies' orthonormal compact wavelets on a lattice. A simple variational approach is used to extend mean field theory and make predictions for the fluctuation strengths…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2008-02-03 Christoph Best , Andreas Schaefer

Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions $q$ and finds the closest member to the exact posterior $p$. Closeness is usually measured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Adji B. Dieng , Dustin Tran , Rajesh Ranganath , John Paisley , David M. Blei