English
Related papers

Related papers: Wired for Overconfidence: A Mechanistic Perspectiv…

200 papers

Steering the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a challenge, particularly in engineering applications where precision and reliability are critical. While fine-tuning and prompting methods can modify model behavior, they lack…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Paul Darm , James Xie , Annalisa Riccardi

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Loka Li , Zhenhao Chen , Guangyi Chen , Yixuan Zhang , Yusheng Su , Eric Xing , Kun Zhang

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strikingly conflicting behaviors: they can appear steadfastly overconfident in their initial answers whilst at the same time being prone to excessive doubt when challenged. To investigate this apparent…

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Yuxi Xia , Loris Schoenegger , Benjamin Roth

Reasoning language models can solve increasingly complex tasks, but struggle to produce the calibrated confidence estimates necessary for reliable deployment. Existing calibration methods usually depend on labels or repeated sampling at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Thomas Zollo , Jimmy Wang , Richard Zemel

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive reasoning capabilities, growing evidence suggests much of their success stems from memorized answer-reasoning patterns rather than genuine inference. In this work, we investigate a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Yang Wu , Yifan Zhang , Yiwei Wang , Yujun Cai , Yurong Wu , Yuran Wang , Ning Xu , Jian Cheng

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language tasks, but often exhibit overconfidence and generate plausible yet incorrect answers. This overconfidence, especially in models undergone…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Zeguan Xiao , Diyang Dou , Boya Xiong , Yun Chen , Guanhua Chen

Producing trustworthy and reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) has become increasingly important as their usage becomes more widespread. Calibration seeks to achieve this by improving the alignment between the model's confidence and the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Glenn Zhang , Treasure Mayowa , Jason Fan , Yicheng Fu , Aaron Sandoval , Sean O'Brien , Kevin Zhu

Hallucination remains a major challenge for the safe and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) in factual content generation. Prior work has explored confidence estimation as an effective approach to hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Caiqi Zhang , Xiaochen Zhu , Chengzu Li , Nigel Collier , Andreas Vlachos

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) have opened up greater opportunities to enable fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) to behave as more powerful interactive agents through improved instruction-following ability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Jerry Huang , Peng Lu , Qiuhao Zeng

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed globally, it is crucial that their responses are calibrated across languages to accurately convey uncertainty and limitations. Prior work shows that LLMs are linguistically overconfident in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Neil Rathi , Dan Jurafsky , Kaitlyn Zhou

While pre-trained language models (PLMs) have become a de-facto standard promoting the accuracy of text classification tasks, recent studies find that PLMs often predict over-confidently. Although various calibration methods have been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Jaeyoung Kim , Dongbin Na , Sungchul Choi , Sungbin Lim

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to automatically label and analyze educational dialogue at scale, yet current pipelines lack reliable ways to detect when models are wrong. We investigate whether reasoning generated by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Bakhtawar Ahtisham , Kirk Vanacore , Zhuqian Zhou , Jinsook Lee , Rene F. Kizilcec

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in various reasoning tasks, aided by techniques like chain-of-thought prompting that elicits verbalized reasoning. However, LLMs often generate text with obvious…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Zhihui Xie , Jizhou Guo , Tong Yu , Shuai Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) are highly vulnerable to input perturbations, as even a small prompt change may result in a substantially different output. Existing methods to enhance LLM robustness are primarily focused on perturbed data…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-04 Aryan Agrawal , Lisa Alazraki , Shahin Honarvar , Marek Rei

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu