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Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

We address the problem of safely learning controlled stochastic dynamics from discrete-time trajectory observations, ensuring system trajectories remain within predefined safe regions during both training and deployment. Safety-critical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Luc Brogat-Motte , Alessandro Rudi , Riccardo Bonalli

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are making significant progress in many research areas where decision-making needs to be accompanied by uncertainty estimation. Being able to quantify uncertainty while making decisions is essential for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Martin Ferianc , Partha Maji , Matthew Mattina , Miguel Rodrigues

In this work, we consider the problem of designing a safety filter for a nonlinear uncertain control system. Our goal is to augment an arbitrary controller with a safety filter such that the overall closed-loop system is guaranteed to stay…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-04-11 Lukas Brunke , Siqi Zhou , Angela P. Schoellig

When autonomous robots interact with humans, such as during autonomous driving, explicit safety guarantees are crucial in order to avoid potentially life-threatening accidents. Many data-driven methods have explored learning probabilistic…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Richard Cheng , Richard M. Murray , Joel W. Burdick

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-15 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

The need for control strategies that can address dynamic system uncertainty is becoming increasingly important. In this work, we propose a Model Predictive Control by quantifying the risk of failure in our system model. The proposed control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-17 Mostafa Tavakkoli Anbarani , Efe C. Balta , Rômulo Meira-Góes , Ilya Kovalenko

Laplace approximations are classic, computationally lightweight means for constructing Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). As in other approximate BNNs, one cannot necessarily expect the induced predictive uncertainty to be calibrated. Here we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Agustinus Kristiadi , Matthias Hein , Philipp Hennig

In this paper, a fixed-time safe control problem is investigated for an uncertain high-order nonlinear pure-feedback system with state constraints. A new nonlinear transformation function is firstly proposed to handle both the constrained…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-02 Chaoqun Guo , Jiangping Hu , Jiasheng Hao , Sergej Celikovsky , Xiaoming Hu

Model uncertainty quantification involves measuring and evaluating the uncertainty linked to a model's predictions, helping assess their reliability and confidence. Noise injection is a technique used to enhance the robustness of neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Xueqiong Yuan , Jipeng Li , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu

This paper addresses the problem of data-driven computation of controllers that are correct by design for safety-critical systems and can provably satisfy (complex) functional requirements. With a focus on continuous-space stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-11 Oliver Schön , Birgit van Huijgevoort , Sofie Haesaert , Sadegh Soudjani

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

We introduce a novel extension to robust control theory that explicitly addresses uncertainty in the value function's gradient, a form of uncertainty endemic to applications like reinforcement learning where value functions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Qian Qi

Deep neural networks have proven to be extremely powerful, however, they are also vulnerable to adversarial attacks which can cause hazardous incorrect predictions in safety-critical applications. Certified robustness via randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Sina Däubener , Kira Maag , David Krueger , Asja Fischer

In this paper, we show how uncertainty estimation can be leveraged to enable safety critical image segmentation in autonomous driving, by triggering a fallback behavior if a target accuracy cannot be guaranteed. We introduce a new…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Victor Besnier , David Picard , Alexandre Briot

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) becomes critical for safe and effective use. Most existing UQ approaches for language models aim to produce a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Maiya Goloburda , Roman Vashurin , Fedor Chernogorsky , Nurkhan Laiyk , Daniil Orel , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov