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Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Nicolai Engelmann , Heinz Koeppl

In this paper we study coupled fully non-local equations, where a linear non-local operator jointly acts on the time and space variables. We establish existence and uniqueness of the solution. A maximum principle is proved and used to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Giacomo Ascione , Enrico Scalas , Bruno Toaldo , Lorenzo Torricelli

The sequentially Markov coalescent (SMC) is a Markov jump process which models correlations in local genealogies across a chromosome. It has been used as a theoretical tool for studying linkage disequilibrium and identity-by-descent, and it…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Jonathan Terhorst

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

The delayed logistic equation (also known as Hutchinson's equation or Wright's equation) was originally introduced to explain oscillatory phenomena in ecological dynamics. While it motivated the development of a large number of mathematical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Ruth E. Baker , Gergely Röst

We prove existence and uniqueness for a one-dimensional multivalued backward stochastic differential equation with jumps. The equation involves a time-indexed family of maximal monotone operators $k_t(\cdot)$ associated with increasing…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Badr Elmansouri , Anas Ouknine , Youssef Ouknine

In the analysis of Markov chains and processes, it is sometimes convenient to replace an unbounded state space with a "truncated" bounded state space. When such a replacement is made, one often wants to know whether the equilibrium behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-30 Alex Infanger , Peter W. Glynn , Yuanyuan Liu

We obtain a new relation between the distributions $\mu_t$ at different times $t\ge 0$ of the continuous-time TASEP (Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process) started from the step initial configuration. Namely, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-18 Leonid Petrov , Axel Saenz

The Lindblad equation describes the time evolution of a density matrix of a quantum mechanical system. Stationary solutions are obtained by time-averaging the solution, which will in general depend on the initial state. We provide an…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-08-11 Bernd Michael Fernengel , Barbara Drossel

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Adrian Casey , Jonathan A. Tawn

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti , David Schnoerr

In this paper we study backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven by the compensated random measure associated to a given pure jump Markov process X on a general state space K. We apply these results to prove well-posedness…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-05 Fulvia Confortola , Marco Fuhrman

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-16 F. Bartolucci , A. Farcomeni , F. Pennoni

We describe stochastic calculus in the context of processes that are driven by an adapted point process of locally finite intensity and are differentiable between jumps. This includes Markov chains as well as non-Markov processes. By…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-26 Eric Foxall

We prove a stochastic maximum principle for a control problem where the state equation is delayed both in the state and in the control, and also the final cost functional may depend on the past trajectories. The adjoint equations turn out…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-14 Giuseppina Guatteri , Federica Masiero

We study a class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes with state space Rd x E where E is a finite set. The continuous component evolves according to a smooth vector field that is switched at the jump times of the discrete coordinate.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-08 Michel Benaïm , Stéphane Le Borgne , Florent Malrieu , Pierre-André Zitt

We derive a kinetic equation to describe the statistical structure of solutions $\rho$ to scalar conservation laws $\rho_t=H(x,t,\rho )_x$, with certain Markov initial conditions. When the Hamiltonian function is convex and increasing in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-11 Fraydoun Rezakhanlou

This paper considers differential problems with random switching, with specific applications to the motion of cells and centrally coordinated motion. Starting with a differential-equation model of cell motion that was proposed previously,…