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We analyze dynamical systems subjected to an additive noise and their deterministic limit. In this work, we will introduce a notion by which a stochastic system has something like a Markov partition for deterministic systems. For a chosen…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Erik Bollt , Pawel Gora , Andrzej Ostruszka , Karol Zyczkowski

We propose a novel data-driven stochastic model predictive control framework for uncertain linear systems with noisy output measurements. Our approach leverages multi-step predictors to efficiently propagate uncertainty, ensuring chance…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-18 Haldun Balim , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger , Johannes Köhler

In this paper we develop a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the mixing distribution of the parameters of a linear stochastic dynamical system. This includes, for example, pharmacokinetic population models with process and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-16 Alona Kryshchenko , Alan Schumitzky , Mike van Guilder , Michael Neely

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

Accurately modeling and verifying the correct operation of systems interacting in dynamic environments is challenging. By leveraging parametric uncertainty within the model description, one can relax the requirement to describe exactly the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Patrick Holmes , Shreyas Kousik , Shankar Mohan , Ram Vasudevan

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

We address the reachability problem for continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems. Our objective is to present a unified framework that characterizes the reachable set of a dynamic system in the presence of both stochastic disturbances and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-04 Saber Jafarpour , Zishun Liu , Yongxin Chen

We consider a finite horizon linear discrete time varying system whose input is a random noise with an imprecisely known probability law. The statistical uncertainty is described by a nonnegative parameter a which constrains the anisotropy…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-08-21 Eugene A. Maximov , Alexander P. Kurdyukov , Igor G. Vladimirov

This paper is concerned with robust performance criteria for linear continuous time invariant stochastic systems driven by statistically uncertain random processes. The uncertainty is understood as the deviation of imprecisely known…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Igor G. Vladimirov

We present a method for providing statistical guarantees on runtime safety and goal reachability for integrated planning and control of a class of systems with unknown nonlinear stochastic underactuated dynamics. Specifically, given a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Craig Knuth , Glen Chou , Jamie Reese , Joe Moore

Determining the reachable set for a given nonlinear control system is crucial for system control and planning. However, computing such a set is impossible if the system's dynamics are not fully known. This paper is motivated by a scenario…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Taha Shafa , Melkior Ornik

We investigate the stabilization of unstable multidimensional partially observed single-sensor and multi-sensor linear systems driven by unbounded noise and controlled over discrete noiseless channels under fixed-rate information…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-09-21 Andrew P. Johnston , Serdar Yüksel

In the context of dynamical systems, nonlinearity measures quantify the strength of nonlinearity by means of the distance of their input-output behaviour to a set of linear input-output mappings. In this paper, we establish a framework to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-28 Tim Martin , Frank Allgöwer

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Stefan Streif , Matthias Karl , Ali Mesbah

In many learning based control methodologies, learning the unknown dynamic model precedes the control phase, while the aim is to control the system such that it remains in some safe region of the state space. In this work, our aim is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-14 Farhad Farokhi , Alex Leong , Iman Shames , Mohammad Zamani

Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 H. Martin Gillis , Isaac Xu , Thomas Trappenberg

Identifying pure components in mixtures is a common yet challenging problem. The associated unmixing process requires the pure components, also known as endmembers, to be sufficiently spectrally distinct. Even with this requirement met,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-11-16 Oliver Hoidn , Aashwin Mishra , Apurva Mehta

In many real-world dynamical systems, obtaining precise models of system uncertainty remains a challenge. It may be difficult to estimate noise distributions or robustness bounds, especially when the distributions/robustness bounds vary…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-05 Heling Zhang , Lillian J. Ratliff , Roy Dong

This study utilized the Gaussian Processes (GPs) regression framework to establish stochastic error bounds between the actual and predicted state evolution of nonlinear systems. These systems are embedded in the linear parameter-varying…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-16 Dimitrios S. Karachalios , Hossam S. Abbas

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are key for both assessing an estimation algorithm's accuracy and in view of downstream tasks, such as its deployment in safety-critical contexts. In this paper, we derive a tight, non-asymptotic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Amon Lahr , Johannes Köhler , Anna Scampicchio , Melanie N. Zeilinger