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LLM confidence calibration is often evaluated by comparing two signals: token-probability scores and verbalized confidence. These signals are sometimes treated as direct readouts of model uncertainty, but their comparison depends on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Hankyeol Kim , Pilsung Kang

Large language models (LLMs) often behave inconsistently across inputs, indicating uncertainty and motivating the need for its quantification in high-stakes settings. Prior work on calibration and uncertainty quantification often focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Maya Kruse , Majid Afshar , Saksham Khatwani , Anoop Mayampurath , Guanhua Chen , Yanjun Gao

In this work, we introduce Entropy Area Score (EAS), a simple yet effective metric to quantify uncertainty in the answer generation process of reasoning large language models (LLMs). EAS requires neither external models nor repeated…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Yongfu Zhu , Lin Sun , Guangxiang Zhao , Weihong Lin , Xiangzheng Zhang

Detecting hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) remains a fundamental challenge for their trustworthy deployment. Going beyond basic uncertainty-driven hallucination detection frameworks, we propose a simple yet powerful method…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Rui Wang , Zeming Wei , Guanzhang Yue , Meng Sun

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Yifei Wang , Yu Sheng , Linjing Li , Daniel Zeng

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Understanding how large language models (LLMs) internally represent and process their predictions is central to detecting uncertainty and preventing hallucinations. While several studies have shown that models encode uncertainty in their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Sunwoo Kim , Haneul Yoo , Alice Oh

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Yu-Neng Chuang , Leisheng Yu , Guanchu Wang , Lizhe Zhang , Zirui Liu , Xuanting Cai , Yang Sui , Vladimir Braverman , Xia Hu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an important building block for the reliable use of neural networks in real-world scenarios, as it can be a useful tool in identifying faulty predictions. Speech emotion recognition (SER) models can suffer…

Sound · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Oliver Schrüfer , Manuel Milling , Felix Burkhardt , Florian Eyben , Björn Schuller

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated potential in cybersecurity applications but have also caused lower confidence due to problems like hallucinations and a lack of truthfulness. Existing benchmarks provide general evaluations but…

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Maksym Del , Markus Kängsepp , Marharyta Domnich , Ardi Tampuu , Lisa Yankovskaya , Meelis Kull , Mark Fishel

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yuheng Huang , Jiayang Song , Zhijie Wang , Shengming Zhao , Huaming Chen , Felix Juefei-Xu , Lei Ma

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive results across a wide range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks, yet they can often produce factually incorrect outputs. This paper introduces a simple but effective low-latency…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Changmao Li , Jeffrey Flanigan

Accurate confidence estimation is essential for trustworthy large language models (LLMs) systems, as it empowers the user to determine when to trust outputs and enables reliable deployment in safety-critical applications. Current confidence…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Mingruo Yuan , Shuyi Zhang , Ben Kao

UnScientify, a system designed to detect scientific uncertainty in scholarly full text. The system utilizes a weakly supervised technique to identify verbally expressed uncertainty in scientific texts and their authorial references. The…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Panggih Kusuma Ningrum , Philipp Mayr , Nina Smirnova , Iana Atanassova

Eliciting Latent Knowledge (ELK) aims to find patterns in a capable neural network's activations that robustly track the true state of the world, especially in hard-to-verify cases where the model's output is untrusted. To further ELK…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Alex Mallen , Madeline Brumley , Julia Kharchenko , Nora Belrose

Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Christian Hobelsberger , Theresa Winner , Andreas Nawroth , Oliver Mitevski , Anna-Carolina Haensch

The model uncertainty obtained by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout is prone to miscalibration. In this paper, different logit scaling methods are extended to dropout variational inference to recalibrate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Max-Heinrich Laves , Sontje Ihler , Karl-Philipp Kortmann , Tobias Ortmaier

Language Confusion is a phenomenon where Large Language Models (LLMs) generate text that is neither in the desired language, nor in a contextually appropriate language. This phenomenon presents a critical challenge in text generation by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Yiyi Chen , Qiongxiu Li , Russa Biswas , Johannes Bjerva

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Yibo Li , Miao Xiong , Jiaying Wu , Bryan Hooi
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