Related papers: The Hollyfeld Gambit in Astrophysics
The General Lotto game is a popular variant of the famous Colonel Blotto game, in which two opposing players allocate limited resources over many battlefields. In this paper, we consider incomplete and asymmetric information formulations…
In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, {\it i.e.}, the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span $\Delta t$, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or…
Betting games provide a natural setting to capture how information yields strategic advantage. The Kelly criterion for betting, long a cornerstone of portfolio theory and information theory, admits an interpretation in the limit of…
On March 16, 2024, Daniel Litt, in an X-post, proposed the following brainteaser: "Flip a fair coin 100 times. It gives a sequence of heads (H) and tails (T). For each HH in the sequence of flips, Alice gets a point; for each HT, Bob does,…
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes.…
We present a multipartite nonlocal game in which each player must guess the input received by his neighbour. We show that quantum correlations do not perform better than classical ones at this game, for any prior distribution of the inputs.…
Consider a gambler and a prophet who observe a sequence of independent, non-negative numbers. The gambler sees the numbers one-by-one whereas the prophet sees the entire sequence at once. The goal of both is to decide on fractions of each…
We revisit the game in which each of several players chooses a pattern and then a coin is flipped repeatedly until one of these patterns is generated. In particular, we demonstrate how to compute the probability of any one player winning…
This paper presents an analysis of data from a gift-exchange-game experiment. The experiment was described in `The Impact of Social Comparisons on Reciprocity' by G\"achter et al. 2012. Since this paper uses state-of-art data science…
The hypothesis that sub-network initializations (lottery) exist within the initializations of over-parameterized networks, which when trained in isolation produce highly generalizable models, has led to crucial insights into network…
In this work we propose a quantum version of a generalized Monty Hall game, that is, one in which the parameters of the game are left free, and not fixed on its regular values. The developed quantum scheme is then used to study the expected…
This note proposes a procedure for enhancing the quality of probabilistic prediction algorithms via betting against their predictions. It is inspired by the success of the conformal test martingales that have been developed recently.
In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each…
The probability of accepting a candidate move in the hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm can be increased by considering a transition to be between windows of several states at the beginning and end of the trajectory, with a state within the…
Suppose a gambler starts with a fortune in (0,1) and wishes to attain a fortune of 1 by making a sequence of bets. Assume thay whenever the gambler stakes the amount s, the gambler's fortune increases by s with probability w and decreases…
Testing by betting has been a cornerstone of the game-theoretic statistics literature. One bets against the null hypothesis, and the accumulated wealth $W_t$ quantifies the evidence against the null hypothesis after $t$ rounds, and the null…
Here, we present the quantum version of a very famous statistical decision problem, whose classical version is counter-intuitive to many. The Monty Hall game can be phrased as a two person game between Alice and Bob. In their pioneering…
Sequences of repeated gambles provide an experimental tool to characterize the risk preferences of humans or artificial decision-making agents. The difficulty of this inference depends on factors including the details of the gambles offered…
We report a new result on lotteries --- that a well-funded syndicate has a purely mechanical strategy to achieve expected returns of 10\% to 25\% in an equiprobable lottery with no take and no carryover pool. We prove that an optimal…
We study a class of probabilistic cooperative games which can be treated as an extension of the classical cooperative games with transferable utilities. The coalitions have an exogenous probability of being realized. This probability…