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Recognizing the successes of treed Gaussian process (TGP) models as an interpretable and thrifty model for nonparametric regression, we seek to extend the model to classification. Both treed models and Gaussian processes (GPs) have,…
Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…
A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…
Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…
Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack…
A dynamical model based on a continuous addition of colored shot noises is presented. The resulting process is colored and non-Gaussian. A general expression for the characteristic function of the process is obtained, which, after a scaling…
We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…
Real-time monitoring in modern medical research introduces functional longitudinal data, characterized by continuous-time measurements of outcomes, treatments, and confounders. This complexity leads to uncountably infinite…
It has been observed that an interesting class of non-Gaussian stationary processes is obtained when in the harmonics of a signal with random amplitudes and phases, frequencies can also vary randomly. In the resulting models, the…
A stationary Gaussian process is said to be long-range dependent (resp., anti-persistent) if its spectral density $f(\lambda)$ can be written as $f(\lambda)=|\lambda|^{-2d}g(|\lambda|)$, where $0<d<1/2$ (resp., $-1/2<d<0$), and $g$ is…
There has been widespread use of causal inference methods for the rigorous analysis of observational studies and to identify policy evaluations. In this article, we consider a class of generalized coarsened procedures for confounding. At a…
Random feature maps are ubiquitous in modern statistical machine learning, where they generalize random projections by means of powerful, yet often difficult to analyze nonlinear operators. In this paper, we leverage the "concentration"…
Gaussian processes have become a popular tool for nonparametric regression because of their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, they often use stationary kernels, which limit the expressiveness of the model and may be…
We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…
Tree structured graphical models are powerful at expressing long range or hierarchical dependency among many variables, and have been widely applied in different areas of computer science and statistics. However, existing methods for…
Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…
We present a nonparametric family of estimators for the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution when covariate information is available. Our estimators are based on a weighted sum of the log-spacings between some selected observations.…
In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…
In many problems, the measured variables (e.g., image pixels) are just mathematical functions of the latent causal variables (e.g., the underlying concepts or objects). For the purpose of making predictions in changing environments or…