Related papers: Empirical Bayes Predictive Density Estimation unde…
Our investigation concerns the estimation of predictive densities and a study of efficiency as measured by the frequentist risk of such predictive densities with integrated $L_2$ and $L_1$ losses. Our findings relate to a $p-$variate…
How can we precisely estimate a large language model's (LLM) accuracy on questions belonging to a specific topic within a larger question-answering dataset? The standard direct estimator, which averages the model's accuracy on the questions…
The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is frequently used in data science. For discrete distributions on large state spaces, approximations of probability vectors may result in a few small negative entries, rendering the KL divergence…
An efficient algorithm for the determination of Bayesian optimal discriminating designs for competing regression models is developed, where the main focus is on models with general distributional assumptions beyond the "classical" case of…
Empirical best prediction (EBP) is a well-known method for producing reliable proportion estimates when the primary data source provides only small or no sample from finite populations. There are potential challenges in implementing…
We consider predictive density estimation under logarithmic score for $d$-dimensional infinitely divisible location models. Taking the formal Bayes predictive density under the Lebesgue prior as a benchmark, we study the Kullback-Leibler…
Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…
Recent work has attempted to directly approximate the `function-space' or predictive posterior distribution of Bayesian models, without approximating the posterior distribution over the parameters. This is appealing in e.g. Bayesian neural…
The paper exposes a non-parametric approach to latent and co-latent modeling of bivariate data, based upon alternating minimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence (EM algorithm) for complete log-linear models. For categorical data, the…
Tensor-based discrete density estimation requires flexible modeling and proper divergence criteria to enable effective learning; however, traditional approaches using $\alpha$-divergence face analytical challenges due to the $\alpha$-power…
We develop an empirical Bayes (EB) G-modeling framework for short-panel linear models with nonparametric prior for the random intercepts, slopes, dynamics, and non-spherical error variances. We establish identification and consistency of…
Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…
Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…
Expectation maximization (EM) is the default algorithm for fitting probabilistic models with missing or latent variables, yet we lack a full understanding of its non-asymptotic convergence properties. Previous works show results along the…
Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model…
We study predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in $\ell_0$-sparse Gaussian sequence models. We propose proper Bayes predictive density estimates and establish asymptotic minimaxity in sparse models. A surprise is the…
In this paper, we consider the problem of parametric empirical Bayes estimation of an i.i.d. prior in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression, with random design. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the variational Empirical Bayes…
The task of quantifying the inherent uncertainty associated with neural network predictions is a key challenge in artificial intelligence. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles are among the most prominent approaches to tackle…
A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the…
We consider the parameter estimation problem of a probabilistic generative model prescribed using a natural exponential family of distributions. For this problem, the typical maximum likelihood estimator usually overfits under limited…