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Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Kangjun Noh , Seongchan Lee , Ilmun Kim , Kyungwoo Song

Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Zhexiao Lin , Yuanyuan Li , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Gao , Michael von Gablenz

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, impeding their reliability in mission-critical situations. One approach to address this issue is to provide citations to relevant sources alongside generated content, enhancing the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Rami Aly , Zhiqiang Tang , Samson Tan , George Karypis

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Large language models (LLMs) encode knowledge with varying degrees of confidence. When responding to queries, models face an inherent trade-off: they can generate responses that are less informative but highly factual, or more informative…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Ziwei Gong , Yanda Chen , Julia Hirschberg , Chen Zhao , He He , Zhou Yu , Kathleen Mckeown

Long-horizon interactions require language models to manage accumulating information: when to update their state, when to preserve their state, and what to ignore. We study this challenge as \textbf{Contextual Belief Management (CBM)}:…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Haoming Xu , Weihong Xu , Zongrui Li , Mengru Wang , Yunzhi Yao , Chiyu Wu , Jin Shang , Yu Gong , Shumin Deng

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Katherine Tian , Eric Mitchell , Allan Zhou , Archit Sharma , Rafael Rafailov , Huaxiu Yao , Chelsea Finn , Christopher D. Manning

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved significant success across various tasks, but ensuring reliable uncertainty estimates, known as model calibration, is crucial for their safe and effective deployment. Modern DNNs often suffer from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Confidence calibration in LLMs, i.e., aligning their self-assessed confidence with the actual accuracy of their responses, enabling them to self-evaluate the correctness of their outputs. However, current calibration methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Yige Yuan , Bingbing Xu , Hexiang Tan , Fei Sun , Teng Xiao , Wei Li , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Isaac Gibbs , John J. Cherian , Emmanuel J. Candès

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

A central challenge in language models (LMs) is faithfulness hallucination: the generation of information unsubstantiated by input context. To study this problem, we propose Precise Information Control (PIC), a new task formulation that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Jacqueline He , Howard Yen , Margaret Li , Shuyue Stella Li , Zhiyuan Zeng , Weijia Shi , Yulia Tsvetkov , Danqi Chen , Pang Wei Koh , Luke Zettlemoyer

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Victor Quach , Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Adam Yala , Jae Ho Sohn , Tommi S. Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Apoorva Sharma , Sushant Veer , Asher Hancock , Heng Yang , Marco Pavone , Anirudha Majumdar

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Multilingual large-scale Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) have been shown to store considerable amounts of factual knowledge, but large variations are observed across languages. With the ultimate goal of ensuring that users with different…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Jirui Qi , Raquel Fernández , Arianna Bisazza

Standard conformal prediction offers a marginal guarantee on coverage, but for prediction sets to be truly useful, they should ideally ensure coverage conditional on each test point. Unfortunately, it is impossible to achieve exact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jivat Neet Kaur , Michael I. Jordan , Ahmed Alaa

Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate factually inaccurate content even if they have corresponding knowledge, which critically undermines their reliability. Existing approaches attempt to mitigate this by incorporating uncertainty in QA…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Xiaoning Dong , Chengyan Wu , Yajie Wen , Yu Chen , Yun Xue , Jing Zhang , Wei Xu , Bolei Ma

The prolific use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as an alternate knowledge base requires them to be factually consistent, necessitating both correctness and consistency traits for paraphrased queries. Recently, significant attempts have…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Ashutosh Bajpai , Aaryan Goyal , Atif Anwer , Tanmoy Chakraborty