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Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with…
Precipitation extremes intensify in most regions in climate-model projections. Changes in vertical velocities contribute to the changes in intensity of precipitation extremes but remain poorly understood. Here, we find that mid-tropospheric…
This study investigates the synoptic circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in southeastern (SE) Europe. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data we report on the typical patterns that characterize the middle and upper…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…
The Mediterranean is strongly affected by Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs), sometimes leading to negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…
In the past decades, boreal summers have been characterized by an increasing number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, including persistent heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events with significant…
In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to modified thermodynamic forcing or…
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due…
Understanding convective processes leading to severe weather hazards within Mediterranean cyclones is relevant for operational forecasters, insurance industry, and enhancing societal preparedness. In this work we examine the climatological…
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
A number of studies have investigated the large-scale drivers and upstream-precursors of extreme weather events, making it clear that the earliest warning signs of extreme events can be remote in both time and space from the impacted…
Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, and the roles…
The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…