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In the last years, increasing efforts have been put into the development of effective stress tests to quantify the resilience of financial institutions. Here we propose a stress test methodology for central counterparties based on a network…

This paper develops a continuous functional framework for analyzing contagion dynamics in financial networks, extending the Navier-Stokes-based approach to network-structured spatial processes. We model financial distress propagation as a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-28 Tatsuru Kikuchi

In economic settings such as learning, social behavior, and financial contagion, agents interact through interdependent networks. This paper examines how a decision maker (DM) can design an optimal intervention strategy under network…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-28 Daeyoung Jeong , Tongseok Lim , Euncheol Shin

The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-21 Marco Bardoscia , Stefano Battiston , Fabio Caccioli , Guido Caldarelli

A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-04-02 Igor Tsatskis

Systemic risk arises as a multi-layer network phenomenon. Layers represent direct financial exposures of various types, including interbank liabilities, derivative- or foreign exchange exposures. Another network layer of systemic risk…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-13 Anton Pichler , Sebastian Poledna , Stefan Thurner

Micro-structural models of contagion and systemic risk emphasize that shock propagation is inherently multi-channel, spanning counterparty exposures, short-term funding and roll-over risk, securities cross-holdings, and common-asset…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-12 Ilias Aarab , Thomas Gottron , Andrea Colombo , Jörg Reddig , Annalauro Ianiro

The question of how to stabilize financial systems has attracted considerable attention since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Recently, Beale et al. ("Individual versus systemic risk and the regulator's dilemma", Proc Natl Acad…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-01-30 Teruyoshi Kobayashi

We consider a general tractable model for default contagion and systemic risk in a heterogeneous financial network, subject to an exogenous macroeconomic shock. We show that, under some regularity assumptions, the default cascade model…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-02 Hamed Amini , Zhongyuan Cao , Agnes Sulem

This paper considers an insurer with two collaborating business lines that faces three critical decisions: (1) dividend payout, (2) reinsurance coverage, and (3) capital injection between the lines, in the presence of model uncertainty. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Tim J. Boonen , Engel John C. Dela Vega , Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces

Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-11-06 Fabio Caccioli , Munik Shrestha , Cristopher Moore , J. Doyne Farmer

We study contagion and systemic risk in sparse financial networks with balance-sheet interactions on a directed random graph. Each institution has homogeneous liabilities and equity, and exposures along outgoing edges are split equally…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-08 Riley James Bendel

This paper introduces a formulation of the optimal network compression problem for financial systems. This general formulation is presented for different levels of network compression or rerouting allowed from the initial interbank network.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-14 Hamed Amini , Zachary Feinstein

We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-02-02 David Martin , José Moran , Debabrata Panja , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Default risk calculus plays a crucial role in portfolio optimization when the risky asset is under threat of bankruptcy. However, traditional stochastic control techniques are not applicable in this scenario, and additional assumptions are…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-10 José A. Salmerón , Giulia Di Nunno , Bernardo D'Auria

This paper develops a quantitative framework to assess the robustness of Bayes-optimal decisions in finite decision problems under model uncertainty. We introduce two complementary stability notions for acts: the robustness radius,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Christoph Jansen , Georg Schollmeyer

It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-17 Yoshiharu Maeno , Kenji Nishiguchi , Satoshi Morinaga , Hirokazu Matsushima

Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-24 Matteo Serri , Guido Caldarelli , Giulio Cimini

The Survivable Network Design problem (SNDP) is a well-studied problem, motivated by the design of networks that are robust to faults under the assumption that any subset of edges up to a specific number can fail. We consider non-uniform…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Chandra Chekuri , Rhea Jain

This study presents an ANWSER model (asset network systemic risk model) to quantify the risk of financial contagion which manifests itself in a financial crisis. The transmission of financial distress is governed by a heterogeneous bank…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-17 Yoshiharu Maeno , Kenji Nishiguchi , Satoshi Morinaga , Hirokazu Matsushima