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Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Measures of discrepancy between probability distributions (statistical distance) are widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We describe how certain measures of statistical distance can be implemented as…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2022-12-21 Chad E. Mitchell , Robert D. Ryne , Kilean Hwang

We study post-calibration uncertainty for trained ensembles of classifiers. Specifically, we consider both aleatoric (label noise) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. Among the most popular and widely used calibration methods in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Jakob Heiss , Sören Lambrecht , Jakob Weissteiner , Hanna Wutte , Žan Žurič , Josef Teichmann , Bin Yu

This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for complex-valued probability measures and explores their novel applications in information theory and statistical analysis. We define a complex probability measure as a phase-modulated…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Siang Cheng , Hejun Xu , Tianxiao Pang

We study the complexity of approximations to the normalized information distance. We introduce a hierarchy of computable approximations by considering the number of oscillations. This is a function version of the difference hierarchy for…

Logic · Mathematics 2019-11-15 Klaus Ambos-Spies , Wolfgang Merkle , Sebastiaan A. Terwijn

Trust is a crucial factor affecting the adoption of machine learning (ML) models. Qualitative studies have revealed that end-users, particularly in the medical domain, need models that can express their uncertainty in decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-21 Andrew Houston , Georgina Cosma

Imbalance in classification tasks is commonly quantified by the cardinalities of examples across classes. This, however, disregards the presence of redundant examples and inherent differences in the learning difficulties of classes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Çağrı Eser , Zeynep Sonat Baltacı , Emre Akbaş , Sinan Kalkan

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 Zheshi Zheng , Bo Yang , Peter Song

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

Uncertainty assessment has gained rapid interest in medical image analysis. A popular technique to compute epistemic uncertainty is the Monte-Carlo (MC) dropout technique. From a network with MC dropout and a single input, multiple outputs…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Robin Camarasa , Daniel Bos , Jeroen Hendrikse , Paul Nederkoorn , M. Eline Kooi , Aad van der Lugt , Marleen de Bruijne

Aleatoric uncertainty is an intrinsic property of ill-posed inverse and imaging problems. Its quantification is vital for assessing the reliability of relevant point estimates. In this paper, we propose an efficient framework for…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-16 Chen Zhang , Bangti Jin

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

The paper is devoted to a categorical study of the category of probabilistic metric spaces. The study is based on an isomorphic description of the category of probabilistic metric spaces. The isomorphic description was obtained in [3] and…

General Topology · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Eva Colebunders , Robert Lowen

A credal network under epistemic irrelevance is a generalised type of Bayesian network that relaxes its two main building blocks. On the one hand, the local probabilities are allowed to be partially specified. On the other hand, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-03-20 Jasper De Bock

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Specially customised Entropies are widely applied in measuring the degree of uncertainties existing in the frame of discernment. However, all of these entropies regard the frame as a whole that has already been determined which dose not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Yuanpeng He

In the study of complex systems, evaluating physical observables often requires sampling representative configurations via Monte Carlo techniques. These methods rely on repeated evaluations of the system's energy and force fields, which can…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-07-02 Dimitrios Tzivrailis , Alberto Rosso , Eiji Kawasaki