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Entropy-based confidence signals are increasingly leveraged to improve reasoning in large language models (LLMs), yet existing approaches treat confidence as a static quantity -- typically aggregated over tokens. We show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Chenghua Zhu , Siyan Wu , Xiangkang Zeng , Zishan Xu , Zhaolu Kang , Yifu Guo , Yuquan Lu , Junduan Huang , Guojing Zhou

This study investigates semantic uncertainty in large language model (LLM) outputs across different decoding methods, focusing on emerging techniques like speculative sampling and chain-of-thought (CoT) decoding. Through experiments on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Darius Foodeei , Simin Fan , Martin Jaggi

The popular success of text-based large language models (LLM) has streamlined the attention of the multimodal community to combine other modalities like vision and audio along with text to achieve similar multimodal capabilities. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Debarpan Bhattacharya , Apoorva Kulkarni , Sriram Ganapathy

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Speculative decoding has emerged as a promising approach to accelerate inference in vision-language models (VLMs) by enabling parallel verification of multiple draft tokens. However, existing methods rely on static tree structures that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Yujia Tong , Tian Zhang , Yunyang Wan , Kaiwei Lin , Jingling Yuan , Chuang Hu

Existing methods derive clinical functional metrics from ventricular semantic segmentation in cardiac cine sequences. While performing well on overall segmentation, they struggle with the end slices. To address this, we extract global…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Yiwei Liu , Liang Zhong , Lingyi Wen , Yuankai Wu

Automated Essay Scoring (AES) systems now reach near human agreement on some public benchmarks, yet real-world adoption, especially in high-stakes examinations, remains limited. A principal obstacle is that most models output a single score…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Ahmed Karim , Qiao Wang , Zheng Yuan

Reliability of machine learning (ML) systems is crucial in safety-critical applications such as healthcare, and uncertainty estimation is a widely researched method to highlight the confidence of ML systems in deployment. Sequential and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Rishab Khincha , Wazeer Zulfikar , Satrajit Ghosh , Pattie Maes

Confidence estimation (CE) indicates how reliable the answers of large language models are and impacts user trust and decision-making. Existing evaluations mainly concern the alignment between confidence and correctness, but ignore the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Yuxi Xia , Dennis Ulmer , Terra Blevins , Yihong Liu , Hinrich Schütze , Benjamin Roth

We present Entropy Adaptive Decoding (EAD), a novel approach for efficient language model inference that dynamically switches between different-sized models based on prediction uncertainty. By monitoring rolling entropy in model logit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Toby Simonds

Language models can learn a range of capabilities from unsupervised training on text corpora. However, to solve a particular problem (such as text summarization) it is typically necessary to fine-tune them on a task-specific dataset. It is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Adam Gleave , Geoffrey Irving

This paper investigates novel classifier ensemble techniques for uncertainty calibration applied to various deep neural networks for image classification. We evaluate both accuracy and calibration metrics, focusing on Expected Calibration…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Michael Schulze , Nikolas Ebert , Laurenz Reichardt , Oliver Wasenmüller

This study examines the role of uncertainty estimation (UE) methods in multilingual text classification under noisy and non-topical conditions. Using a complex-vs-simple sentence classification task across several languages, we evaluate a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Nouran Khallaf , Serge Sharoff

Machine learning-based Deepfake detection models have achieved impressive results on benchmark datasets, yet their performance often deteriorates significantly when evaluated on out-of-distribution data. In this work, we investigate an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Haroon Wahab , Hassan Ugail , Lujain Jaleel

Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain a better generalization performance. In this work we present a practical method for estimating the joint power of several classifiers. It differs from existing approaches which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Simi Haber , Yonatan Wexler

Hallucinations are a common issue that undermine the reliability of large language models (LLMs). Recent studies have identified a specific subset of hallucinations, known as confabulations, which arise due to predictive uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Mykyta Ielanskyi , Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Sepp Hochreiter

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination, particularly in long-form generations. A promising direction to mitigate hallucination is to teach LLMs to express uncertainty explicitly when they lack sufficient knowledge. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Ruihan Yang , Caiqi Zhang , Zhisong Zhang , Xinting Huang , Dong Yu , Nigel Collier , Deqing Yang

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable generative performance, yet their output quality is dependent on the decoding strategy. While sampling-based methods (e.g., top-k, nucleus) and search-and-select based methods (e.g., beam…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Benjamin Patrick Evans , Sumitra Ganesh , Leo Ardon

Accurate EV power estimation underpins range prediction and energy management, yet practitioners need both point accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty. We propose an anchored-ensemble Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with a Student-t likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Ghazal Farhani , Taufiq Rahman , Kieran Humphries

As large language models (LLMs) become integral to code-related tasks, a central question emerges: Do LLMs truly understand program semantics? We introduce EquiBench, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs through equivalence checking, i.e.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Anjiang Wei , Jiannan Cao , Ran Li , Hongyu Chen , Yuhui Zhang , Ziheng Wang , Yuan Liu , Thiago S. F. X. Teixeira , Diyi Yang , Ke Wang , Alex Aiken
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