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In question-answering tasks, determining when to trust the outputs is crucial to the alignment of large language models (LLMs). Kuhn et al. (2023) introduces semantic entropy as a measure of uncertainty, by incorporating linguistic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Meilin Zhu , Gaojie Jin , Xiaowei Huang , Lijun Zhang

A Large Language Model (LLM) is considered consistent if semantically equivalent prompts produce semantically equivalent responses. Despite recent advancements showcasing the impressive capabilities of LLMs in conversational systems, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Vamshi Krishna Bonagiri , Sreeram Vennam , Manas Gaur , Ponnurangam Kumaraguru

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with a computationally feasible surrogate loss is a widely accepted approach for classification. Notably, the convexity and calibration (CC) properties of a loss function ensure consistency of ERM in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-05 Ben Dai

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have accelerated progress toward artificial general intelligence, with inference-time scaling emerging as a key technique. Contemporary approaches leverage either sequential reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Zenan Xu , Zexuan Qiu , Guanhua Huang , Kun Li , Siheng Li , Chenchen Zhang , Kejiao Li , Qi Yi , Yuhao Jiang , Bo Zhou , Fengzong Lian , Zhanhui Kang

This study investigates uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) for medical applications, emphasizing both technical innovations and philosophical implications. As LLMs become integral to clinical decision-making,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Zahra Atf , Seyed Amir Ahmad Safavi-Naini , Peter R. Lewis , Aref Mahjoubfar , Nariman Naderi , Thomas R. Savage , Ali Soroush

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit varying strengths and weaknesses across different tasks, prompting recent studies to explore the benefits of ensembling models to leverage their complementary advantages. However, existing LLM ensembling…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Yuxuan Yao , Han Wu , Mingyang Liu , Sichun Luo , Xiongwei Han , Jie Liu , Zhijiang Guo , Linqi Song

Estimating accurate and well-calibrated predictive uncertainty is important for enhancing the reliability of computer vision models, especially in safety-critical applications like traffic scene perception. While ensemble methods are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Svetlana Pavlitska , Beyza Keskin , Alwin Faßbender , Christian Hubschneider , J. Marius Zöllner

Ensemble models can be used to estimate prediction uncertainties in machine learning models. However, an ensemble of N models is approximately N times more computationally demanding compared to a single model when it is used for inference.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Vidit Agrawal , Shixin Zhang , Lane E. Schultz , Dane Morgan

Modern Large Language Model (LLM)-based programming agents often rely on test execution feedback to refine their generated code. These tests are synthetically generated by LLMs. However, LLMs may produce invalid or hallucinated test cases,…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Hamed Taherkhani , Jiho Shin , Muhammad Ammar Tahir , Md Rakib Hossain Misu , Vineet Sunil Gattani , Hadi Hemmati

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks. However, the truthfulness of their outputs is not guaranteed, and their tendency toward overconfidence further limits reliability. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Qi Cao , Andrew Gambardella , Takeshi Kojima , Yutaka Matsuo , Yusuke Iwasawa

Uncertainty estimation in deep learning has become a leading research field in medical image analysis due to the need for safe utilisation of AI algorithms in clinical practice. Most approaches for uncertainty estimation require sampling…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-12 Kaisar Kushibar , Víctor Manuel Campello , Lidia Garrucho Moras , Akis Linardos , Petia Radeva , Karim Lekadir

Assessing the stability of code generation from large language models (LLMs) is essential for judging their reliability in real-world development. We extend prior "structural-entropy concepts" to the program domain by pairing entropy with…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Yewei Song , Tiezhu Sun , Xunzhu Tang , Prateek Rajput , Tegawende F. Bissyande , Jacques Klein

As large language models become increasingly capable and widely deployed, verifying the provenance of machine-generated content is critical to ensuring trust, safety, and accountability. Watermarking techniques have emerged as a promising…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Yihan Wu , Ruibo Chen , Georgios Milis , Heng Huang

Token sampling strategies critically influence text generation quality in large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods introduce additional hyperparameters, requiring extensive tuning and complicating deployment. We present…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Xiaodong Cai , Hai Lin , Shaoxiong Zhan , Weiqi Luo , Hong-Gee Kim , Hongyan Hao , Yu Yang , Hai-Tao Zheng

Prediction sets provide a theoretically grounded framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. Adapting them to structured generation tasks, in particular, large language model (LLM) based code generation, remains a…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yuhao Tan , Yanke Zhou , Guangyuan Wu , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Uncertainty estimation and ensembling methods go hand-in-hand. Uncertainty estimation is one of the main benchmarks for assessment of ensembling performance. At the same time, deep learning ensembles have provided state-of-the-art results…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Arsenii Ashukha , Alexander Lyzhov , Dmitry Molchanov , Dmitry Vetrov

Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Christian Hobelsberger , Theresa Winner , Andreas Nawroth , Oliver Mitevski , Anna-Carolina Haensch

Code vulnerability detection is crucial for ensuring the security and reliability of modern software systems. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising capabilities in this domain. However, notable discrepancies in…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Zhihong Sun , Jia Li , Yao Wan , Chuanyi Li , Hongyu Zhang , Zhi jin , Ge Li , Hong Liu , Chen Lyu , Songlin Hu

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely employed in programming language analysis to enhance human productivity. Yet, their reliability can be compromised by various code distribution shifts, leading to inconsistent outputs. While…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Yufei Li , Simin Chen , Yanghong Guo , Wei Yang , Yue Dong , Cong Liu

The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Srijith Rajamohan , Ahmed Salhin , Josh Frazier , Rohit Kumar , Yu-Cheng Tsai , Todd Cook