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Related papers: Probabilistic Forecasting of Localized Wildfire Sp…

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Predicting the spread of wildfires is essential for effective fire management and risk assessment. With the fast advancements of artificial intelligence (AI), various deep learning models have been developed and utilized for wildfire spread…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-11-25 Jiyeon Kim , Yingjie Hu , Negar Elhami-Khorasani , Kai Sun , Ryan Zhenqi Zhou

The dynamics of a rain forest is extremely complex involving births, deaths and growth of trees with complex interactions between trees, animals, climate, and environment. We consider the patterns of recruits (new trees) and dead trees…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-19 Abdollah Jalilian , Francisco Cuevas-Pacheco , Ganggang Xu , Rasmus Waagepetersen

Localised patterns are often observed in models for dryland vegetation, both as peaks of vegetation in a desert state and as gaps within a vegetated state, known as `fairy circles'. Recent results from radial spatial dynamics show that…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-10-14 Dan J. Hill

Satellite-derived fire observations are the primary input for learning-based wildfire spread prediction, yet they are inherently incomplete due to cloud cover, smoke obscuration, and sensor artifacts. This partial observability introduces a…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-11 Chen Yang , Mehdi Zafari , Ziheng Duan , A. Lee Swindlehurst

This paper studies an adaptive approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting (WPF) including offline and online learning procedures. In the offline learning stage, a base forecast model is trained via inner and outer loop updates of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-17 Zichao Meng , Ye Guo , Hongbin Sun

Generative models like diffusion and flow-matching create high-fidelity samples by progressively refining noise. The refinement process is notoriously slow, often requiring hundreds of function evaluations. We introduce Warm-Start Diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Jonas Scholz , Richard E. Turner

Wildfires can severely damage electricity grids leading to long periods of power interruption. Climate change will exacerbate this threat by increasing the frequency of dry climate conditions. Under these climate conditions, human-related…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-13 Alexandre Moreira , Felipe Pianco , Bruno Fanzeres , Alexandre Street , Ruiwei Jiang , Chaoyue Zhao , Miguel Heleno

Wind speed forecasting models and their application to wind farm operations are attaining remarkable attention in the literature because of its benefits as a clean energy source. In this paper, we suggested the time series machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 G. V. Drisya , Valsaraj P. , K. Asokan , K. Satheesh Kumar

Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims…

Existing generative models for time series forecasting often transform simple priors (typically Gaussian) into complex data distributions. However, their sampling initialization, independent of historical data, hinders the capture of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Huibo Xu , Runlong Yu , Likang Wu , Xianquan Wang , Qi Liu

The aim of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of re-implementing some key parts of the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting WRF-SFIRE simulator by replacing its core differential equations numerical solvers with…

In practical applications, it is common that wildfire simulators do not correctly predict the evolution of the fire scar. Usually, this is caused due to multiple factors including inaccuracy in the input data such as land cover…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-16 Jaime Carrasco , Cristobal Pais , Zuo-Jun Max Shen , Andres Weintraub

Level set methods are versatile and extensible techniques for general front tracking problems, including the practically important problem of predicting the advance of a firefront across expanses of surface vegetation. Given a rule,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2007-10-16 V. Mallet , D. E. Keyes , F. E. Fendell

The integration of manned and unmanned aircraft can help improve wildfire response. Wildfire containment failures occur when resources available to first responders, who execute the initial stages of wildfire management referred to as the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-26 Mahdi Al-Husseini , Kyle Wray , Mykel Kochenderfer

Wildfires are natural disasters capable of damaging economies and communities. When wildfires become uncontrollable, Incident Manager Teams (IMT's) dispatch response vehicles to key assets to undertake protective tasks and so mitigate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-09 Iman Roozbeh , John Hearne , Babak Abbasi , Melih Ozlen

Understanding the dynamics of wildfire is crucial for developing management and intervention strategies. Mathematical and computational models can be used to improve our understanding of wildfire processes and dynamics. This paper presents…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-02 Cordula Reisch , Adrián Navas-Montilla , Ilhan Özgen-Xian

Conditional diffusion probabilistic models can model the distribution of natural images and can generate diverse and realistic samples based on given conditions. However, oftentimes their results can be unrealistic with observable color…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Kangfu Mei , Nithin Gopalakrishnan Nair , Vishal M. Patel

Flow matching (FM) learns vector fields by regressing stochastic velocity targets along intermediate distributions $p_t$. We identify a geometric optimization bottleneck in this regression problem: when the covariance $\Sigma_t$ of $p_t$ is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Shadab Ahamed , Eshed Gal , Md Shahriar Rahim Siddiqui , Simon Ghyselincks , Moshe Eliasof , Eldad Haber

Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-28 Tim Coleman , Kimberly Kaufeld , Mary Frances Dorn , Lucas Mentch

We propose a predictive model of the turbulent burning velocity over a wide range of conditions. The model consists of sub models of the stretch factor and the turbulent flame area. The stretch factor characterizes the flame response of…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-07-25 Zhen Lu , Yue Yang