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Related papers: Probabilistic Forecasting of Localized Wildfire Sp…

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Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. We here develop a joint model for the occurrence…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-15 Jonathan Koh , François Pimont , Jean-Luc Dupuy , Thomas Opitz

The current WRF-Fire model starts the fire from a given ignition point at a given time. We want to start the model from a given fire perimeter at a given time instead. However, the fuel balance and the state of the atmosphere depend on the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-07-20 Volodymyr Y. Kondratenko , Jonathan D. Beezley , Adam K. Kochanski , Jan Mandel

This paper presents a novel approach in wildfire prediction through the integration of multisource spatiotemporal data, including satellite data, and the application of deep learning techniques. Specifically, we utilize an ensemble model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Ayoub Jadouli , Chaker El Amrani

The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-02-08 Mohamed Drissi

Turbulence is of paramount importance in wildland fire propagation since it randomly transports the hot air mass that can pre-heat and then ignite the area ahead the fire. This contributes to give a random character to the firefront…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-08-27 Gianni Pagnini , Luca Massidda

Wildfire forecasting has been one of the most critical tasks that humanities want to thrive. It plays a vital role in protecting human life. Wildfire prediction, on the other hand, is difficult because of its stochastic and chaotic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Thai-Nam Hoang , Sang Truong , Chris Schmidt

A cellular automaton (CA)-based modeling approach to simulate wildfire spread, emphasizing its strengths in capturing complex fire dynamics and its integration with geographic information systems (GIS). The model introduces an enhanced…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2024-03-15 Rohit Ghosh , Jishnu Adhikary , Rezki Chemlal

In recent decades, the intensification of wildfire activity in western Canada has resulted in substantial socio-economic and environmental losses. Accurate wildfire risk prediction is hindered by the intrinsic stochasticity of ignition and…

Forest fire prediction involves estimating the likelihood of fire ignition or related risk levels in a specific area over a defined time period. With climate change intensifying fire behavior and frequency, accurate prediction has become…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Nicolas Caron , Christophe Guyeux , Hassan Noura , Benjamin Aynes

This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Christina Winkler , David Rolnick

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-21 Julie Bessac , Emil Mihai Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

We present a general stochastic forest-fire model which shows a variety of different structures depending on the parameter values. The model contains three possible states per site (tree, burning tree, empty site) and three parameters (tree…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 B. Drossel , F. Schwabl

Predicting future states in uncertain environments, such as wildfire spread, medical diagnosis, or autonomous driving, requires models that can consider multiple plausible outcomes. While diffusion models can effectively learn such…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Sebastian Gerard , Josephine Sullivan

Fine particulate matter, PM$_{2.5}$, has been documented to have adverse health effects and wildland fires are a major contributor to PM$_{2.5}$ air pollution in the US. Forecasters use numerical models to predict PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-30 Suman Majumder , Yawen Guan , Brian J. Reich , Susan O'Neill , Ana G. Rappold

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of wildfires, making rapid and accurate prediction of fire spread essential for effective mitigation and response. Physics-based simulators such as FARSITE offer high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Taehoon Kang , Taeyong Kim

With the increased size and frequency of wildfire eventsworldwide, accurate real-time prediction of evolving wildfirefronts is a crucial component of firefighting efforts and for-est management practices. We propose a wildfire…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Maxfield E. Green , Karl Kaiser , Nat Shenton

The increasing size and severity of wildfires across the western United States have generated dangerous levels of PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations in recent years. In a changing climate, expanding the use of prescribed fires is widely considered…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-27 Kyleen Liao , Jatan Buch , Kara Lamb , Pierre Gentine

Trajectory prediction of aerial vehicles is a key requirement in applications ranging from missile guidance to UAV collision avoidance. While most prediction methods assume deterministic target motion, real-world targets often exhibit…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Marc Schneider , Renato Loureiro , Torbjørn Cunis , Walter Fichter

Wildland fire smoke contains hazardous levels of fine particulate matter PM2.5, a pollutant shown to adversely effect health. Estimating fire attributable PM2.5 concentrations is key to quantifying the impact on air quality and subsequent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-16 Alexandra Larsen , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich , Ana G. Rappold

Intense wildfires impact nature, humans, and society, causing catastrophic damage to property and the ecosystem, as well as the loss of life. Forecasting wildfire front propagation is essential in order to support fire fighting efforts and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Myungsoo Yoo , Christopher K. Wikle