Related papers: Biased Mean Quadrangle and Applications
The standard asymmetric Laplace framework for Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) suffers from a fundamental decision-theoretic misalignment, yielding biased finite-sample estimates, and precludes gradient-based computation due to…
We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…
Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…
In portfolio analysis, the traditional approach of replacing population moments with sample counterparts may lead to suboptimal portfolio choices. I show that optimal portfolio weights can be estimated using a machine learning (ML)…
The model averaging problem is to average multiple models to achieve a prediction accuracy not much worse than that of the best single model in terms of mean squared error. It is known that if the models are misspecified, model averaging is…
A lower bound on the minimum mean-squared error (MSE) in a Bayesian estimation problem is proposed in this paper. This bound utilizes a well-known connection to the deterministic estimation setting. Using the prior distribution, the bias…
The optimistic nature of the Q-learning target leads to an overestimation bias, which is an inherent problem associated with standard $Q-$learning. Such a bias fails to account for the possibility of low returns, particularly in risky…
We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
Negative binomial regression is commonly employed to analyze overdispersed count data. With small to moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the dispersion parameter may be subject to a significant bias, that in turn…
This paper studies the sparse normal mean models under the empirical Bayes framework. We focus on the mixture priors with an atom at zero and a density component centered at a data driven location determined by maximizing the marginal…
This work is concerned with the convergence of Gaussian process regression. A particular focus is on hierarchical Gaussian process regression, where hyper-parameters appearing in the mean and covariance structure of the Gaussian process…
In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…
Regularized system identification has become a significant complement to more classical system identification. It has been numerically shown that kernel-based regularized estimators often perform better than the maximum likelihood estimator…
The standard approach for constructing a Mean-Variance portfolio involves estimating parameters for the model using collected samples. However, since the distribution of future data may not resemble that of the training set, the…
A bias-reduced estimator is proposed for the mean absolute deviation parameter of a median regression model. A workaround is devised for the lack of smoothness in the sense conventionally required in general bias-reduced estimation. A local…
Laplace approximations are a standard tool for computationally efficient inference in latent Gaussian models, but they fail for quantile regression with the asymmetric Laplace likelihood because the observed Hessian vanishes almost…
Purpose: To develop neural network (NN)-based quantitative MRI parameter estimators with minimal bias and a variance close to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. Theory and Methods: We generalize the mean squared error loss to control the bias and…
In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…
Quantile regression provides a consistent approach to investigating the association between covariates and various aspects of the distribution of the response beyond the mean. When the regression covariates are measured with errors,…