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Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Yizhe Zhang , Shuo Wang , Yejia Zhang , Danny Z. Chen

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Yun Xie , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Laura Lützow , Simone Garatti , Marco C. Campi , Lars Lindemann , Matthias Althoff

Estimating the reliability of individual predictions is key to increase the adoption of computational models and artificial intelligence in preclinical drug discovery, as well as to foster its application to guide decision making in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-13 Isidro Cortés-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

In domain adaptation, covariate shift and label shift problems are two distinct and complementary tasks. In covariate shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution arise from variations in feature probabilities, existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-13 Hongwei Wen , Annika Betken , Hanyuan Hang

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Weighted conformal prediction (WCP) has been commonly used to quantify prediction uncertainty under covariate shift. However, the effectiveness of WCP relies heavily on the degree of overlap between the training and test covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Mufang Ying , Wenge Guo , Koulik Khamaru , Ying Hung

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Théo Dupuy , Binbin Xu , Stéphane Perrey , Jacky Montmain , Abdelhak Imoussaten

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method to construct reliable prediction intervals that has gained significant attention in recent years. Despite its success and various proposed extensions, a significant practical feature…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Louis Allain , Sébastien Da Veiga , Brian Staber

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…