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If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal discovery can help inferring properties of the `unobserved joint distributions'…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-12 Dominik Janzing , Philipp M. Faller , Leena Chennuru Vankadara

Discovery of causal relationships from observational data is an important problem in many areas. Several recent results have established the identifiability of causal DAGs with non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear structural equation models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Bingling Wang , Qing Zhou

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of…

Causal models communicate our assumptions about causes and effects in real-world phe- nomena. Often the interest lies in the identification of the effect of an action which means deriving an expression from the observed probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

Causal inference methods based on conditional independence construct Markov equivalent graphs, and cannot be applied to bivariate cases. The approaches based on independence of cause and mechanism state, on the contrary, that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Nataliya Sokolovska , Pierre-Henri Wuillemin

We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data.Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-27 He Zhao , Vassili Kitsios , Terence J. O'Kane , Edwin V. Bonilla

Causal graphs are widely used in software engineering to document and explore causal relationships. Though widely used, they may also be wildly misleading. Causal structures generated from SE data can be highly variable. This instability is…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Jeremy Hulse , Nasir U. Eisty , Tim Menzies

Causal Discovery methods aim to identify a DAG structure that represents causal relationships from observational data. In this article, we stress that it is important to test such methods for robustness in practical settings. As our main…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-16 Marcus Kaiser , Maksim Sipos

We present a novel form of Fourier analysis, and associated signal processing concepts, for signals (or data) indexed by edge-weighted directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). This means that our Fourier basis yields an eigendecomposition of a…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-29 Bastian Seifert , Chris Wendler , Markus Püschel

Causal discovery combines data with knowledge provided by experts to learn the DAG representing the causal relationships between a given set of variables. When data are scarce, bagging is used to measure our confidence in an average DAG…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alessio Zanga , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella

Causal effect identification using causal graphs is a fundamental challenge in causal inference. While extensive research has been conducted in this area, most existing methods assume the availability of fully specified directed acyclic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

Understanding the causal relationships that underlie a system is a fundamental prerequisite to accurate decision-making. In this work, we explore how expert knowledge can be used to improve the data-driven identification of causal graphs,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Stephanie Long , Alexandre Piché , Valentina Zantedeschi , Tibor Schuster , Alexandre Drouin

Bayesian networks can be used to extract explanations about the observed state of a subset of variables. In this paper, we explicate the desiderata of an explanation and confront them with the concept of explanation proposed by existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Ulf Nielsen , Jean-Philippe Pellet , André Elisseeff

Causal structure discovery from observational data is fundamental to the causal understanding of autonomous systems such as medical decision support systems, advertising campaigns and self-driving cars. This is essential to solve well-known…

We describe a formal approach to identify 'root causes' of outliers observed in $n$ variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ in a scenario where the causal relation between the variables is a known directed acyclic graph (DAG). To this end, we first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-06 Dominik Janzing , Kailash Budhathoki , Lenon Minorics , Patrick Blöbaum

Finding cause-effect relationships is of key importance in science. Causal discovery aims to recover a graph from data that succinctly describes these cause-effect relationships. However, current methods face several challenges, especially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Jan Marco Ruiz de Vargas , Kirtan Padh , Niki Kilbertus

Causal Bayesian networks (CBN) are popular graphical probabilistic models that encode causal relations among variables. Learning their graphical structure from observational data has received a lot of attention in the literature. When there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-22 Christophe Gonzales , Amir-Hosein Valizadeh

Existing approaches to causal discovery often rely on restrictive modeling assumptions that limit their applicability in real-world settings, particularly when data are heavy-tailed or contain a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Juraj Bodik , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin