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Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs have gained widespread adoption for their clear benefits in enhancing experimental efficiency and participant welfare. These designs dynamically adjust treatment allocations during interim…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang , Waverly Wei

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

In various statistical settings, the goal is to estimate a function which is restricted by the statistical model only through a conditional moment restriction. Prominent examples include the nonparametric instrumental variable framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-28 AmirEmad Ghassami , James M. Robins , Andrea Rotnitzky

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Sequential decision-making under uncertainty is often associated with long feedback delays. Such delays degrade the performance of the learning agent in identifying a subset of arms with the optimal collective reward in the long run. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Saeed Ghoorchian , Setareh Maghsudi

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

This work bridges the gap between staggered adoption designs and survival analysis to estimate causal effects in settings with time-varying treatments, addressing a fundamental challenge in medical research exemplified by the Stanford Heart…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Xiang Meng , Iavor Bojinov

We study batched bandit experiments and consider the problem of inference conditional on the realized stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter, where all of these may be chosen adaptively using information up to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jiafeng Chen , Isaiah Andrews

The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-21 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Ashesh Rambachan , Amanda Coston , Edward Kennedy

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Tetsuro Morimura , Tatsushi Oka , Yugo Suzuki , Daisuke Moriwaki

We present new results on average causal effects in settings with unmeasured exposure-outcome confounding. Our results are motivated by a class of estimands, e.g., frequently of interest in medicine and public health, that are currently not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Lan Wen , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

Statistical inference on the explained variation of an outcome by a set of covariates is of particular interest in practice. When the covariates are of moderate to high-dimension and the effects are not sparse, several approaches have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-24 Hua Yun Chen

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

The study of online decision-making problems that leverage contextual information has drawn notable attention due to their significant applications in fields ranging from healthcare to autonomous systems. In modern applications, contextual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-22 Qiyu Han , Will Wei Sun , Yichen Zhang

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-18 Mayleen Cortez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

Difference-in-differences (DiD) identification relies mainly on a parallel trends assumption about untreated potential outcomes. Researchers often relax this assumption by assuming conditional parallel trends within units with the same…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Daniela Rodrigues , Laura A. Hatfield

A design-based individual prediction approach is developed based on the expected cross-validation results, given the sampling design and the sample-splitting design for cross-validation. Whether the predictor is selected from an ensemble of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-24 Li-Chun Zhang , Danhyang Lee

Strip-plot designs are very useful when the treatments have a factorial structure and the factors levels are hard-to-change. We develop a randomization-based theory of causal inference from such designs in a potential outcomes framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Fatemah A. Alquallaf , S. Huda , Rahul Mukerjee