Related papers: Bayesian Deep Count Regression and Anomaly Detecti…
Country instability is a global issue, with unpredictably high levels of instability thwarting socio-economic growth and possibly causing a slew of negative consequences. As a result, uncertainty prediction models for a country are becoming…
We present Bayesian Spillover Graphs (BSG), a novel method for learning temporal relationships, identifying critical nodes, and quantifying uncertainty for multi-horizon spillover effects in a dynamic system. BSG leverages both an…
Generic event boundary detection (GEBD) aims to identify natural boundaries in a video, segmenting it into distinct and meaningful chunks. Despite the inherent subjectivity of event boundaries, previous methods have focused on deterministic…
The search for gamma-ray counterparts to gravitational-wave events with the CALET Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (CGBM) requires accurate and robust background modeling. Previous CALET observing runs (O3 and O4) relied on averaged pre/post-event…
In this work, we reveal the structure of global news coverage of disasters and its determinants by using a large-scale news coverage dataset collected by the GDELT (Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone) project that monitors news media…
Individual events at high-energy colliders like the LHC can be represented by a sequence of measurements, or 'point patterns' in an observable space. Starting from this data representation, we build a simple Bayesian probabilistic model for…
Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is a central challenge in industrial monitoring, as failures frequently arise from complex temporal dynamics and cross-sensor interactions. While recent deep learning models, including graph…
Subnational location data of disaster events are critical for risk assessment and disaster risk reduction. Disaster databases such as EM-DAT often report locations in unstructured textual form, with inconsistent granularity or spelling,…
Generic event boundary detection (GEBD) aims at pinpointing event boundaries naturally perceived by humans, playing a crucial role in understanding long-form videos. Given the diverse nature of generic boundaries, spanning different video…
We propose a physics-informed anomaly detection framework for collider data based on a Bayesian latent diffusion model. Our method combines a probabilistic encoder with diffusion dynamics in the latent space, allowing for stable and…
We propose a generative model for single-channel EEG that incorporates the constraints experts actively enforce during visual scoring. The framework takes the form of a dynamic Bayesian network with depth in both the latent variables and…
Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
Deep learning (DL) has recently drawn much attention in image analysis, natural language process, and high-dimensional medical data analysis. Under the causal direct acyclic graph (DAG) interpretation, the input variables without incoming…
Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…
Semiconductor manufacturing is an extremely complex and precision-driven process, characterized by thousands of interdependent parameters collected across diverse tools and process steps. Multi-variate time-series analysis has emerged as a…
Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising approach to achieve well-calibrated predictions on distribution-shifted data. Nevertheless, there exists no large-scale survey that evaluates recent SOTA methods on diverse, realistic, and…
In this preliminary study, we used the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) database to examine xenophobic events reported in the media during 2022. We collected a dataset of 2,778 unique events and created a choropleth map…
Anomaly detection is critical for the secure and reliable operation of industrial control systems. As our reliance on such complex cyber-physical systems grows, it becomes paramount to have automated methods for detecting anomalies,…
In many places, tectonic tremor is observed in relation to slow slip and can be used as a proxy to study slow slip events of moderate magnitude where surface deformation is hidden in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) noise. However,…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…