Related papers: Amortized Inference for Correlated Discrete Choice…

We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic…

Latent space models are effective tools for statistical modeling and exploration of network data. These models can effectively model real world network characteristics such as degree heterogeneity, transitivity, homophily, etc. Due to their…

We present an approach to adaptively utilize deep neural networks in order to reduce the evaluation time on new examples without loss of accuracy. Rather than attempting to redesign or approximate existing networks, we propose two schemes…

Choice modeling has been a central topic in the study of individual preference or utility across many fields including economics, marketing, operations research, and psychology. While the vast majority of the literature on choice models has…

The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known derived quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting turnout probabilities at the individual…

One of the most common problems preventing the application of prediction models in the real world is lack of generalization: The accuracy of models, measured in the benchmark does repeat itself on future data, e.g. in the settings of real…

Models of choice are a fundamental input to many now-canonical optimization problems in the field of Operations Management, including assortment, inventory, and price optimization. Naturally, accurate estimation of these models from data is…

We consider a class of stochastic programming problems where the implicitly decision-dependent random variable follows a nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic error. The Clarke subdifferential and surrogate functions are not…

Adaptive inference is a promising technique to improve the computational efficiency of deep models at test time. In contrast to static models which use the same computation graph for all instances, adaptive networks can dynamically adjust…

Many important problems in the real world don't have unique solutions. It is thus important for machine learning models to be capable of proposing different plausible solutions with meaningful probability measures. In this work we introduce…

We describe an approach for estimating the statistical risk of deep networks that contain a mix of learned and known operators. Building on the maximal training error bounds previously established for known operator learning, we derive a…

Consider the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset. One the one hand, conventional approaches using iterative imputation benefit from the simplicity and customizability of learning conditional distributions directly, but suffer…

In discrete choice modeling (DCM), model misspecifications may lead to limited predictability and biased parameter estimates. In this paper, we propose a new approach for estimating choice models in which we divide the systematic part of…

We consider the use of deep learning for covariance estimation. We propose to globally learn a neural network that will then be applied locally at inference time. Leveraging recent advancements in self-supervised foundational models, we…

This work is about understanding the impact of invariance and equivariance on generalisation in supervised learning. We use the perspective afforded by an averaging operator to show that for any predictor that is not equivariant, there is…

In many fields of science, generalized likelihood ratio tests are established tools for statistical inference. At the same time, it has become increasingly common that a simulator (or generative model) is used to describe complex processes…

This paper explores innovations to parameter estimation in generalized linear and nonlinear models, which may be used in item response modeling to account for guessing/pretending or slipping/dissimulation and for the effect of covariates.…

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding…

Coherent lower previsions are general probabilistic models allowing incompletely specified probability distributions. However, for complete description of a coherent lower prevision -- even on finite underlying sample spaces -- an infinite…

The advent of fast sensing technologies allows for real-time model updates in many applications where the model parameters are uncertain. Bayesian algorithms, such as ensemble smoothers, offer a real-time probabilistic inversion accounting…