Related papers: A capture-recapture hidden Markov model framework …
Capture-recapture (CRC) surveys are used to estimate the size of a population whose members cannot be enumerated directly. CRC surveys have been used to estimate the number of Covid-19 infections, people who use drugs, sex workers, conflict…
We propose a modern method to estimate population size based on capture-recapture designs of K samples. The observed data is formulated as a sample of n i.i.d. K-dimensional vectors of binary indicators, where the k-th component of each…
Obtaining reliable and precise estimates of wildlife species abundance and distribution is essential for the conservation and management of animal populations and natural reserves. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide estimates of…
We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…
Multi-state capture-recapture data comprise individual-specific sighting histories together with information on individuals' states related, for example, to breeding status, infection level, or geographical location. Such data are often…
Estimating the size of stigmatized, hidden, or hard-to-reach populations is a major problem in epidemiology, demography, and public health research. Capture-recapture and multiplier methods have become standard tools for inference of hidden…
Population size estimation based on the capture-recapture experiment is an interesting problem in various fields including epidemiology, criminology, demography, etc. In many real-life scenarios, there exists inherent heterogeneity among…
We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of…
Studying how diverse human populations are related is of historical and anthropological interest, in addition to providing a realistic null model for testing for signatures of natural selection or disease associations. Furthermore,…
Knowledge of population distribution is critical for building infrastructure, distributing resources, and monitoring the progress of sustainable development goals. Although censuses can provide this information, they are typically conducted…
A powerful approach for understanding neural population dynamics is to extract low-dimensional trajectories from population recordings using dimensionality reduction methods. Current approaches for dimensionality reduction on neural data…
Motivated by various applications, we consider the problem of homogeneous human population size (N) estimation from Dual-record system (DRS) (equivalently, two-sample capture-recapture experiment). The likelihood estimate from the…
Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…
Populations of interest are often hidden from data for a variety of reasons, though their magnitude remains important in determining resource allocation and appropriate policy. One popular approach to population size estimation, the…
Despite the recent development of methods dealing with partially observed epidemic dynamics (unobserved model coordinates, discrete and noisy outbreak data), limitations remain in practice, mainly related to the quantity of augmented data…
We present a strategy capable of describing basic features of the dynamics of crowds. The behaviour of the crowd is considered from a twofold perspective. We examine both the large scale behaviour of the crowd, and phenomena happening at…
We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture--recapture setups,…
Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is an approach to sampling design and inference in hard-to-reach human populations. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader…
We develop a multi-state model to estimate the size of a closed population from ecological capture-recapture studies. We consider the case where capture-recapture data are not of a simple binary form, but where the state of an individual is…
The collection of capture-recapture data often involves collecting data on numerous capture occasions over a relatively short period of time. For many study species this process is repeated, for example annually, resulting in capture…