Related papers: Kronecker-Structured Nonparametric Spatiotemporal …
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks have emerged as interpretable alternatives to traditional multi-layer perceptrons. However, standard implementations lack principled uncertainty quantification capabilities essential for many scientific…
Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…
Temporal networks consist of timestamped directed interactions that may appear continuously in time, yet few studies have directly tackled the continuous-time modeling of networks. Here, we introduce a maximum-entropy approach to temporal…
Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…
We apply Gaussian processes (GP) in order to impose constraints on teleparallel gravity and its $f(T)$ extensions. We use available $H(z)$ observations from (i) cosmic chronometers data (CC); (ii) Supernova Type Ia (SN) data from the…
We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…
In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…
In this work, we identify open research opportunities in applying Neural Temporal Point Process (NTPP) models to industry scale customer behavior data by carefully reproducing NTPP models published up to date on known literature benchmarks…
The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…
Early approaches to multiple-output Gaussian processes (MOGPs) relied on linear combinations of independent, latent, single-output Gaussian processes (GPs). This resulted in cross-covariance functions with limited parametric interpretation,…
The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) is widely used for analyzing data streams that interact with each other, where events generate new events within their own dimension (via self-excitation) or across different dimensions (via…
Gaussian Processes (GPs), as a nonparametric learning method, offer flexible modeling capabilities and calibrated uncertainty quantification for function approximations. Additionally, GPs support online learning by efficiently incorporating…
In this paper we propose the first non-parametric Bayesian model using Gaussian Processes to make inference on Poisson Point Processes without resorting to gridding the domain or to introducing latent thinning points. Unlike competing…
Fitting Gaussian Processes (GPs) provides interpretable aleatoric uncertainty quantification for estimation of spatio-temporal fields. Spatio-temporal deep learning models, while scalable, typically assume a simplistic independent…
Gaussian process (GP) methods have been widely studied recently, especially for large-scale systems with big data and even more extreme cases when data is sparse. Key advantages of these methods consist in: 1) the ability to provide…
In this paper we propose a Kronecker-based modeling for identifying the spatial-temporal dynamics of large sensor arrays. The class of Kronecker networks is defined for which we formulate a Vector Autoregressive model. Its…
The use of covariance kernels is ubiquitous in the field of spatial statistics. Kernels allow data to be mapped into high-dimensional feature spaces and can thus extend simple linear additive methods to nonlinear methods with higher order…
We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuous-time interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the…
It is challenging to guide neural network (NN) learning with prior knowledge. In contrast, many known properties, such as spatial smoothness or seasonality, are straightforward to model by choosing an appropriate kernel in a Gaussian…
Gaussian processes (GPs) can provide a principled approach to uncertainty quantification with easy-to-interpret kernel hyperparameters, such as the lengthscale, which controls the correlation distance of function values. However, selecting…