Related papers: Modeling the Disjunction Effect within Classical P…
Human agents happen to judge that a conjunction of two terms is more probable than one of the terms, in contradiction with the rules of classical probabilities---this is the conjunction fallacy. One of the most discussed accounts of this…
We prove a theorem which shows that a collection of experimental data of probabilistic weights related to decisions with respect to situations and their disjunction cannot be modeled within a classical probabilistic weight structure in case…
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical probability laws. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief…
The Prisoner's Dilemma game (PDG) is one of the simple test-beds for the probabilistic nature of the human decision-making process. Behavioral experiments have been conducted on this game for decades and show a violation of the so-called…
Data based judgments go into artificial intelligence applications but they undergo paradoxical reversal when seemingly unnecessary additional data is provided. Examples of this are Simpson's reversal and the disjunction effect where the…
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum…
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model…
We perform new experiment using almost the same sample size considered by Tversky and Shafir to test the validity of classical probability theory in decision making. The results clearly indicate that the disjunction effect depends also on…
We present a new experiment demonstrating destructive interference in customers' estimates of conditional probabilities of product failure. We take the perspective of a manufacturer of consumer products, and consider two situations of cause…
Contrary to classical semantics, the disjunction of two experimental propositions relating to pure states of a quantum system ("quantum propositions" for short) can be true even in the case where neither disjunct is true. This suggests that…
Prisoner's dilemma has been heavily studied. In classical model, each player chooses to either "Cooperate" or "Defect". In this paper, we generalize the prisoner's dilemma with a new alternative which is neither defect or cooperation. The…
Various effects in human cognition, often considered `non-classical', have been argued to be most naturally modelled by quantum-like models of decision making. We extend this approach to describe models of cognition and decision-making in…
Hidden-variable models aim to reproduce the results of quantum theory and to satisfy our classical intuition. Their refutation is usually based on deriving predictions that are different from those of quantum mechanics. Here instead we…
We recently performed cognitive experiments on conjunctions and negations of two concepts with the aim of investigating the combination problem of concepts. Our experiments confirmed the deviations (conceptual vagueness, underextension,…
The 'conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches…
How should we model an observer within quantum mechanics or quantum field theory? How can classical physics emerge from a quantum model, and why should classical probability be useful? How can we model a selective measurement entirely…
We discuss conditionalisation for Accept-Desirability models in an abstract decision-making framework, where uncertain rewards live in a general linear space, and events are special projection operators on that linear space. This abstract…
The aim of this expos\'e is to make explicit the analogy between the classical notion of non-independent probability distribution and the quantum notion of entangled state. To bring that analogy forth, we consider a classical systems with…
Emergence of the classical world from the quantum substrate of our Universe is a long-standing conundrum. I describe three insights into the transition from quantum to classical that are based on the recognition of the role of the…
Inspired by a quantum mechanical formalism to model concepts and their disjunctions and conjunctions, we put forward in this paper a specific hypothesis. Namely that within human thought two superposed layers can be distinguished: (i) a…