Related papers: Epidemic reproduction numbers in spatial networks
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
In the real world, many complex systems interact with other systems. In addition, the intra- or inter-systems for the spread of information about infectious diseases and the transmission of infectious diseases are often not random, but with…
The effect of diffusion rates on the basic reproduction number of a general compartmental reaction-diffusion epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment is considered. It is shown when the diffusion rates tend to zero, the limit of the…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…
We develop a multi-patch and multi-group model that captures the dynamics of an infectious disease when the host is structured into an arbitrary number of groups and interacts into an arbitrary number of patches where the infection takes…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
In this paper, we provide a straightforward approach to defining and deriving the key epidemiological quantity, the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, for Markovian epidemics in structured populations. The methodology derived is applicable…
A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly…
A wide range of infectious diseases are both vertically and horizontally transmitted. Such diseases are spatially transmitted via multiple species in heterogeneous environments, typically described by complex meta-population models. The…
Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…