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Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Manuel Pulido , Juan J. Ruiz , Pierre Tandeo

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

This paper is a contribution in the context of variational data assimilation combined with statistical learning. The framework of data assimilation traditionally uses data collected at sensor locations in order to bring corrections to a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Amina Benaceur , Barbara Verfürth

Data assimilation (DA) is widely used to combine physical knowledge and observations. It is nowadays commonly used in geosciences to perform parametric calibration. In a context of climate change, old calibrations can not necessarily be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-23 Rem-Sophia Mouradi , Cédric Goeury , Olivier Thual , Fabrice Zaoui , Pablo Tassi

Standard methods of data assimilation assume prior knowledge of a model that describes the system dynamics and an observation function that maps the model state to a predicted output. An accurate mapping from model state to observation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Franz Hamilton , Tyrus Berry , Timothy Sauer

Ultra-rapid data assimilation (URDA) is a method that rapidly updates preemptive forecasts derived from observations without integrating a dynamical model each time additional observations become available. Due to its computational…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-05-19 Fumitoshi Kawasaki , Atsushi Okazaki , Kenta Kurosawa , Shunji Kotsuki

There is an urgent need to build models to tackle Indoor Air Quality issue. Since the model should be accurate and fast, Reduced Order Modelling technique is used to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. The accuracy of the model, that…

Radiation is typically the most time-consuming physical process in numerical models. One solution is to use machine learning methods to simulate the radiation process to improve computational efficiency. From an operational standpoint, this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Hao Jing , Sa Xiao , Haoyu Li , Huadong Xiao , Wei Xue

This study investigates the integration of machine learning (ML) and data assimilation (DA) techniques, focusing on implementing surrogate models for Geological Carbon Storage (GCS) projects while maintaining high fidelity physical results…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 G. S. Seabra , N. T. Mücke , V. L. S. Silva , D. Voskov , F. Vossepoel

Inferring the state and unknown parameters of a network of coupled oscillators is of utmost importance. This task is made harder when only partial and noisy observations are available, which is a typical scenario in realistic…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-04-07 Lauren D. Smith , Georg A. Gottwald

This paper develops a surrogate model refinement approach for the simulation of dynamical systems and the solution of optimization problems governed by dynamical systems in which surrogates replace expensive-to-compute state- and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-08 Jonathan R. Cangelosi , Matthias Heinkenschloss

Data Assimilation is the process in which we improve the representation of the state of a physical system by combining information coming from a numerical model, real-world observations, and some prior modelling. It is widely used to model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-09 Victor Trappler , Arthur Vidard

Reduced-order modelling and low-dimensional surrogate models generated using machine learning algorithms have been widely applied in high-dimensional dynamical systems to improve the algorithmic efficiency. In this paper, we develop a…

For numerous earth observation applications, one may benefit from various satellite sensors to address the reconstruction of some process or information of interest. A variety of satellite sensors deliver observation data with different…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Ronan Fablet , Bertrand Chapron

Gridded satellite precipitation datasets are useful in hydrological applications as they cover large regions with high density. However, they are not accurate in the sense that they do not agree with ground-based measurements. An…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-06 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Anastasios Doulamis , Nikolaos Doulamis

Surrogate models provide compact relations between user-defined input parameters and output quantities of interest, enabling the efficient evaluation of complex parametric systems in many-query settings. Such capabilities are essential in a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-16 Matteo Giacomini , Pedro Díez

Accurate acquisition of surface meteorological conditions at arbitrary locations holds significant importance for weather forecasting and climate simulation. Due to the fact that meteorological states derived from satellite observations are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Siwei Tu , Ben Fei , Weidong Yang , Fenghua Ling , Hao Chen , Zili Liu , Kun Chen , Hang Fan , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

The computational resources required to solve the full 3D inversion of time-domain electromagnetic data are immense. To overcome the time-consuming 3D simulations, we construct a surrogate model, more precisely, a data-driven statistical…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-07-10 Wouter Deleersnyder , David Dudal , Thomas Hermans

The robustness and accuracy of a vision system for motion estimation of a tumbling target satellite are enhanced by an adaptive Kalman filter. This allows a vision-guided robot to complete the grasping of the target even if occlusion occurs…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Farhad Aghili

Increasing the resolution of a model can improve the performance of a data assimilation system: first because model field are in better agreement with high resolution observations, then the corrections are better sustained and, with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-07 Sébastien Barthélémy , Julien Brajard , Laurent Bertino , François Counillon