Related papers: CRPS-Optimal Binning for Univariate Conformal Regr…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a…
In many operational settings, decision-makers must commit to actions before uncertainty resolves, but existing optimization tools rarely quantify how consistently a chosen decision remains optimal across plausible scenarios. This paper…
Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…
Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of…
Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions,…
Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…
This paper studies the use of conformal prediction (CP), an emerging probabilistic forecasting method, for day-ahead photovoltaic power predictions to enhance participation in electricity markets. First, machine learning models are used to…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…
Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) offer a versatile framework for constructing predictive distributions, allowing for calibrated inference and informative decision-making. However, their applicability has been limited to scenarios adhering…
This paper develops new variance-reduction techniques for the forward-reflected-backward splitting (FRBS) method to solve a class of possibly nonmonotone stochastic composite inclusions. Unlike unbiased estimators such as mini-batching,…
Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…
Conformal predictive systems allow forecasters to issue predictive distributions for real-valued future outcomes that have out-of-sample calibration guarantees. On a more abstract level, conformal prediction makes use of in-sample…
This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the…
Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is widely used for nonparametric regression over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. It offers powerful modeling capabilities at the cost of significant computational costs, which typically require $O(n^3)$…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…
This paper introduces a new type of probabilistic semiparametric model that takes advantage of data binning to reduce the computational cost of kernel density estimation in nonparametric distributions. Two new conditional probability…
In this paper, we consider the coefficient-based regularized distribution regression which aims to regress from probability measures to real-valued responses over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), where the regularization is put on…
This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…