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Eliciting preferences from human judgements is inherently imprecise, yet most decision analysis methods force a single priority vector from pairwise comparisons, discarding the information embedded in inconsistencies. We instead leverage…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-27 Salvatore Greco , Sajid Siraj , Michele Lundy

We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-21 Burkhard C. Schipper

In multiple criteria decision aiding, very often the alternatives are compared by means of a value function compatible with the preferences expressed by the Decision Maker. The problem is that, in general, there is a plurality of compatible…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-14 Sally Giuseppe Arcidiacono , Salvatore Corrente , Salvatore Greco

We revisit three fundamental problems in algorithms under uncertainty: the Secretary Problem, Prophet Inequality, and Stochastic Probing, each subject to general downward-closed constraints. When elements have binary values, all three…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Aviad Rubinstein , Sahil Singla

We discuss conditionalisation for Accept-Desirability models in an abstract decision-making framework, where uncertain rewards live in a general linear space, and events are special projection operators on that linear space. This abstract…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Kathelijne Coussement , Gert de Cooman , Keano De Vos

Assessing the fairness of a decision making system with respect to a protected class, such as gender or race, is challenging when class membership labels are unavailable. Probabilistic models for predicting the protected class based on…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-28 Jiahao Chen , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Geoffry Svacha , Madeleine Udell

Many large-scale recommender systems consist of two stages. The first stage efficiently screens the complete pool of items for a small subset of promising candidates, from which the second-stage model curates the final recommendations. In…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Lequn Wang , Thorsten Joachims

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-12-24 Indre Zliobaite , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Online decision-makers often obtain predictions on future variables, such as arrivals, demands, inventories, and so on. These predictions can be generated from simple forecasting algorithms for univariate time-series, all the way to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Lin An , Andrew A. Li , Benjamin Moseley , Gabriel Visotsky

Prediction algorithms assign numbers to individuals that are popularly understood as individual "probabilities" -- what is the probability of 5-year survival after cancer diagnosis? -- and which increasingly form the basis for life-altering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-30 Cynthia Dwork , Michael P. Kim , Omer Reingold , Guy N. Rothblum , Gal Yona

The ``impossibility theorem'' -- which is considered foundational in algorithmic fairness literature -- asserts that there must be trade-offs between common notions of fairness and performance when fitting statistical models, except in two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Andrew Bell , Lucius Bynum , Nazarii Drushchak , Tetiana Herasymova , Lucas Rosenblatt , Julia Stoyanovich

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Michael Oberst , Alexander D'Amour , Minmin Chen , Yuyan Wang , David Sontag , Steve Yadlowsky

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

Empirical research shows that individuals' responses to treatments vary along latent characteristics, such as innate ability or motivation. Therefore, a policymaker seeking to maximize welfare may consider designing policies based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-06 Giacomo Opocher

Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-03 Stefan Rass , Sandra König , Stefan Schauer

The Perceiver makes few architectural assumptions about the relationship among its inputs with quadratic scalability on its memory and computation time. Indeed, the Perceiver model outpaces or is competitive with ResNet-50 and ViT in terms…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-06 EuiYul Song

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

We consider a practically motivated variant of the canonical online fair allocation problem: a decision-maker has a budget of perishable resources to allocate over a fixed number of rounds. Each round sees a random number of arrivals, and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Siddhartha Banerjee , Chamsi Hssaine , Sean R. Sinclair

Preference elicitation frameworks feature heavily in the research on participatory ethical AI tools and provide a viable mechanism to enquire and incorporate the moral values of various stakeholders. As part of the elicitation process,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-08-07 Kyle Boerstler , Vijay Keswani , Lok Chan , Jana Schaich Borg , Vincent Conitzer , Hoda Heidari , Walter Sinnott-Armstrong

One of the recent innovations in urban distribution is crowdsourced delivery, where deliveries are made by occasional drivers who wish to utilize their surplus resources (unused transport capacity) by making deliveries in exchange for some…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-05 Alim Buğra Çınar , Wout Dullaert , Markus Leitner , Rosario Paradiso , Stefan Waldherr