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Market sentiment analysis on social media content requires knowledge of both financial markets and social media jargon, which makes it a challenging task for human raters. The resulting lack of high-quality labeled data stands in the way of…
This paper investigates the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically GPT-3.5-turbo (GPT), to form inflation perceptions and expectations based on macroeconomic price signals. We compare the LLM's output to household survey data…
This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into classic inflation nowcasting frameworks, particularly in light of high inflation volatility periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose InflaBERT, a BERT-based…
We aim to enhance a price sentiment index and to more precisely understand price trends from the perspective of not only consumers but also businesses. We extract comments related to prices from the Economy Watchers Survey conducted by the…
Understanding regional Consumer Price Index (CPI) dynamics is essential for timely and effective economic policymaking. However, traditional modeling procedures typically rely only on parametric panel modeling with low-frequency and…
Forecasting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important yet challenging task in economics, where most existing approaches rely on low-frequency, survey-based data. With the recent advances of large language models (LLMs), there is…
This study empirically tests the $\textit{Narrative Economics}$ hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets…
Sentiment analysis is a vital tool for uncovering insights from financial articles, news, and social media, shaping our understanding of market movements. Despite the impressive capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in financial…
The social NLP research community witness a recent surge in the computational advancements of mental health analysis to build responsible AI models for a complex interplay between language use and self-perception. Such responsible AI models…
Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators that have a great impact on the population of any country and region. Inflation is influenced by range of factors, one of which is inflation expectations. Many central banks…
Textual data from social platforms captures various aspects of mental health through discussions around and across issues, while users reach out for help and others sympathize and offer support. We propose a comprehensive framework that…
Financial sentiment analysis is critical for valuation and investment decision-making. Traditional NLP models, however, are limited by their parameter size and the scope of their training datasets, which hampers their generalization…
Although most people support climate action, widespread underestimation of others' support stalls individual and systemic changes. In this preregistered experiment, we test whether large language models (LLMs) can reliably predict these…
We implement traditional machine learning and deep learning methods for global tweets from 2017-2022 to build a high-frequency measure of the public's sentiment index on inflation and analyze its correlation with other online data sources…
Sentiment analysis in low-resource, culturally nuanced contexts challenges conventional NLP approaches that assume fixed labels and universal affective expressions. We present a diagnostic framework that treats sentiment as a…
Financial sentiment analysis is crucial for understanding the influence of news on stock prices. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for this purpose due to their advanced text analysis capabilities. However,…
This paper applies a recurrent neural network, the LSTM, to forecast inflation. This is an appealing model for time series as it processes each time step sequentially and explicitly learns dynamic dependencies. The paper also explores the…
Sensitive attributes are legally protected characteristics that should not be used to discriminate. Careful steps have been taken to minimize the risk of human bias regarding these fields, such as race and age. Large language models (LLMs)…
Opinion mining and demographic attribute inference have many applications in social science. In this paper, we propose models to infer daily joint probabilities of multiple latent attributes from Twitter data, such as political sentiment…
I introduce a survey of economic expectations formed by querying a large language model (LLM)'s expectations of various financial and macroeconomic variables based on a sample of news articles from the Wall Street Journal between 1984 and…