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We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-09 Natasa Tagasovska , David Lopez-Paz

Recently, many self-supervised learning methods for image reconstruction have been proposed that can learn from noisy data alone, bypassing the need for ground-truth references. Most existing methods cluster around two classes: i) Stein's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-12 Julián Tachella , Mike Davies , Laurent Jacques

The goal of anomaly detection is to identify anomalous samples from normal ones. In this paper, a small number of anomalies are assumed to be available at the training stage, but they are assumed to be collected only from several anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-03 Bowen Tian , Qinliang Su , Jian Yin

Anomaly detection aims to identify observations that deviate from expected behavior. Because anomalous events are inherently sparse, most frameworks are trained exclusively on normal data to learn a single reference model of normality. This…

Deep learning-based methods have achieved a breakthrough in image anomaly detection, but their complexity introduces a considerable challenge to understanding why an instance is predicted to be anomalous. We introduce a novel explanation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Philipp Liznerski , Saurabh Varshneya , Ece Calikus , Puyu Wang , Alexander Bartscher , Sebastian Josef Vollmer , Sophie Fellenz , Marius Kloft

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Anomaly detection is the practice of identifying items or events that do not conform to an expected behavior or do not correlate with other items in a dataset. It has previously been applied to areas such as intrusion detection, system…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2018-01-31 James Zhang , Ilija Vukotic , Robert Gardner

This paper describes the architecture and the fundamental methodology of an anomaly detector, which by continuously monitoring Simple Network Management Protocol data and by processing it as complex-events, is able to timely recognize…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Massimiliano Leone Itria , Enrico Schiavone , Nicola Nostro

Characterizing uncertainty is a common issue in nuclear measurement and has important implications for reliable physical discovery. Traditional methods are either insufficient to cope with the heterogeneous nature of uncertainty or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-01 Pengcheng Ai , Zhi Deng , Yi Wang , Chendi Shen

State estimators are crucial components of anomaly detectors that are used to monitor cyber-physical systems. Many frequently-used state estimators are susceptible to model risk as they rely critically on the availability of an accurate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-19 Venkatraman Renganathan , Benjamin J. Gravell , Justin Ruths , Tyler H. Summers

This paper considers the general signal detection and parameter estimation problem in the presence of colored Gaussian noise disturbance. By modeling the disturbance with an autoregressive process, we present three signal detectors with…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-07-29 Bo Tang , Haibo He , Steven Kay

This paper is devoted to the performance analysis of the detectors proposed in the companion paper where a comprehensive design framework is presented for the adaptive detection of subspace signals. The framework addresses four variations…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-23 Pia Addabbo , Danilo Orlando , Giuseppe Ricci , Louis L. Scharf

Most uncertainty-aware robotic systems collapse prediction uncertainty into a single scalar score and use it to trigger uniform corrective responses. This aggregation obscures whether uncertainty arises from corrupted observations or from…

The increasing digitization of smart grids has made addressing cybersecurity issues crucial in order to secure the power supply. Anomaly detection has emerged as a key technology for cybersecurity in smart grids, enabling the detection of…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Ömer Sen , Simon Glomb , Martin Henze , Andreas Ulbig

As radio telescopes increase in sensitivity and flexibility, so do their complexity and data-rates. For this reason automated system health management approaches are becoming increasingly critical to ensure nominal telescope operations. We…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-12-13 Michael Mesarcik , Albert-Jan Boonstra , Marco Iacobelli , Elena Ranguelova , Cees de Laat , Rob van Nieuwpoort

We present a refined version of the Anomaly Awareness framework for enhancing unsupervised anomaly detection. Our approach introduces minimal supervision into Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) through a two-stage training strategy: the model…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-04-17 Adam Banda , Charanjit K. Khosa , Veronica Sanz

The increasing volume of traffic (especially from IoT devices) is posing a challenge to the current anomaly detection systems. Existing systems are forced to take the support of the control plane for a more thorough and accurate detection…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Sankalp Mittal

Sewer pipe faults, such as leaks and blockages, can lead to severe consequences including groundwater contamination, property damage, and service disruption. Traditional inspection methods rely heavily on the manual review of CCTV footage…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Alex George , Will Shepherd , Simon Tait , Lyudmila Mihaylova , Sean R. Anderson

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates
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