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Accurate and timely identification of hospital outbreak clusters is crucial for preventing the spread of infections that have epidemic potential. While assessing pathogen similarity through whole genome sequencing (WGS) is considered the…

This chapter surveys univariate and multivariate methods for infectious disease outbreak detection. The setting considered is a prospective one: data arrives sequentially as part of the surveillance systems maintained by public health…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-27 Benjamin Allévius , Michael Höhle

The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Matthew Adeoye , Xavier Didelot , Simon EF Spencer

Detection of Out-of-Distribution (OOD) samples in real time is a crucial safety check for deployment of machine learning models in the medical field. Despite a growing number of uncertainty quantification techniques, there is a lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Karina Zadorozhny , Patrick Thoral , Paul Elbers , Giovanni Cinà

Early Warning Signals (EWSs) are vital for implementing preventive measures before a disease turns into a pandemic. While new diseases exhibit unique behaviors, they often share fundamental characteristics from a dynamical systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Reza Miry , Amit K. Chakraborty , Russell Greiner , Mark A. Lewis , Hao Wang , Tianyu Guan , Pouria Ramazi

Epidemiologists use a variety of statistical algorithms for the early detection of outbreaks. The practical usefulness of such methods highly depends on the trade-off between the detection rate of outbreaks and the chances of raising a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-18 Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-27 Benedikt Zacher , Irina Czogiel

Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-01 Laura Natali , Saga Helgadottir , Onofrio M. Marago , Giovanni Volpe

Responding to disease outbreaks requires close surveillance of their trajectories, but outbreak detection is hindered by the high noise in epidemic time series. Aggregating information across data sources has shown great denoising ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Ruiqi Lyu , Alistair Turcan , Bryan Wilder

The timely detection of disease outbreaks through reliable early warning signals (EWSs) is indispensable for effective public health mitigation strategies. Nevertheless, the intricate dynamics of real-world disease spread, often influenced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Amit K. Chakraborty , Shan Gao , Reza Miry , Pouria Ramazi , Russell Greiner , Mark A. Lewis , Hao Wang

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and lateral flow device (LFD) tests were frequently deployed to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Many of these tests were singleplex, and only tested for the presence of a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-02 Martyn Fyles , Christopher E. Overton , Tom Ward , Emma Bennett , Tom Fowler , Ian Hall

Healthcare data now span EHRs, medical imaging, genomics, and wearable sensors, but most diagnostic models still process these modalities in isolation. This limits their ability to capture early, cross-modal disease signatures. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Md Talha Mohsin , Ismail Abdulrashid

Early detection of disease outbreaks is of paramount importance to implementing intervention strategies to mitigate the severity and duration of the outbreak. We build methodology that utilizes the characteristic profile of disease…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-20 Michael D. Porter , Jarad B. Niemi , Brian J. Reich

The growing availability of observational databases like electronic health records (EHR) provides unprecedented opportunities for secondary use of such data in biomedical research. However, these data can be error-prone and need to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sarah C. Lotspeich , Gustavo G. C. Amorim , Pamela A. Shaw , Ran Tao , Bryan E. Shepherd

The extraction of relevant data from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is crucial to identifying symptoms and automating epidemiological surveillance processes. By harnessing the vast amount of unstructured text in EHRs, we can detect…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Juliano Genari , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Chronic respiratory diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, are a serious health crisis, affecting a large number of people globally and inflicting major costs on the economy. Current methods for assessing the…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-06 Rohan Tan Bhowmik

The developing field of enhanced diagnostic techniques in the diagnosis of infectious diseases, constitutes a crucial domain in modern healthcare. By utilizing Gas Chromatography-Ion Mobility Spectrometry (GC-IMS) data and incorporating…

Electronic health records (EHR) is an inherently multimodal register of the patient's health status characterized by static data and multivariate time series (MTS). While MTS are a valuable tool for clinical prediction, their fusion with…

Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Michael Rapp , Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2011-10-24 Alex Skvortsov , Branko Ristic
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