Related papers: Neural Hidden Markov Model with Adaptive Granulari…
This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…
The conformational kinetics of enzymes can be reliably revealed when they are governed by Markovian dynamics. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are appropriate especially in the case of conformational states that are hardly distinguishable.…
Hidden Markov models are widely used for modeling sequential data but typically have limited applicability in observational causal inference due to their strong conditional independence assumptions. I introduce feedback-augmented…
Forecasting neural activity in response to naturalistic stimuli remains a key challenge for understanding brain dynamics and enabling downstream neurotechnological applications. Here, we introduce a generative forecasting framework for…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
Pretrained language models have achieved state-of-the-art performance when adapted to a downstream NLP task. However, theoretical analysis of these models is scarce and challenging since the pretraining and downstream tasks can be very…
Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HeteGNNs) have demonstrated strong abilities to learn node representations by effectively extracting complex structural and semantic information in heterogeneous graphs. Most of the prevailing HeteGNNs…
Recommender systems help users find relevant items of interest based on the past preferences of those users. In many domains, however, the tastes and preferences of users change over time due to a variety of factors and recommender systems…
Hidden Markov Models, HMM's, are mathematical models of Markov processes with state that is hidden, but from which information can leak. They are typically represented as 3-way joint-probability distributions. We use HMM's as denotations of…
This paper describes a new method, HMM gauge likelihood analysis, or GLA, of detecting anomalies in discrete time series using Hidden Markov Models and clustering. At the center of the method lies the comparison of subsequences. To achieve…
We propose a high-order stochastic-statistical moment closure model for efficient ensemble prediction of leading-order statistical moments and probability density functions in multiscale complex turbulent systems. The statistical moment…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the usual slow methods like EM or Gibbs sampling. We provide a…
This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer…
This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…
We present a novel algorithm for learning the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a geometric setting where the observations take values in Riemannian manifolds. In particular, we elevate a recent second-order method of moments…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…
In this paper we propose a novel approach to multi-action recognition that performs joint segmentation and classification. This approach models each action using a Gaussian mixture using robust low-dimensional action features. Segmentation…
We introduce the Momentum Transformer, an attention-based deep-learning architecture, which outperforms benchmark time-series momentum and mean-reversion trading strategies. Unlike state-of-the-art Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)…
We are interested in assessing the order of a finite-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with the only two assumptions that the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and that the density functions of the emission…