Related papers: Constructing efficient score functions for rare ev…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability…
Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems can undergo rapid transitions relative to the change in their forcing, for example due to the occurrence of multiple equilibrium solutions for a specific interval of parameters. In this paper, we…
In recent years, several climate subsystems have been identified that may undergo a relatively rapid transition compared to the changes in their forcing. Such transitions are rare events in general, and simulating long-enough trajectories…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…
A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…
Transitional localised turbulence in shear flows is known to either decay to an absorbing laminar state or proliferate via splitting. The average passage times from one state to the other depend super-exponentially on the Reynolds number…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…
Building on recent advances in scientific machine learning and generative modeling for computational fluid dynamics, we propose a conditional score-based diffusion model designed for multi-scenarios fluid flow prediction. Our model…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
We investigate the application of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm for the estimation of tail probabilities of solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations evaluated at a given time, and of associated temporal averages. We…
Many turbulent flows undergo drastic and abrupt configuration changes with huge impacts. As a paradigmatic example we study the multistability of jet dynamics in a barotropic beta plane model of atmosphere dynamics. It is considered as the…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
The reduction of the computational effort is desirable for the simulation of marine ecosystem models. Using a marine ecosystem model, the assessment and the validation of annual periodic solutions (i.e., steady annual cycles) against…