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We investigate generically applicable and intuitively appealing prediction intervals based on $k$-fold cross validation. We focus on the conditional coverage probability of the proposed intervals, given the observations in the training…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-13 Lukas Steinberger , Hannes Leeb

This paper presents a new algorithm based on interval methods for rigorously constructing inner estimates of feasible parameter regions together with enclosures of the solution set for parameter-dependent systems of nonlinear equations in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-26 Bettina Ponleitner , Hermann Schichl

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

We propose an approach to compute inner and outer-approximations of the sets of values satisfying constraints expressed as arbitrarily quantified formulas. Such formulas arise for instance when specifying important problems in control such…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-22 Eric Goubault , Sylvie Putot

This work connects two mathematical fields - computational complexity and interval linear algebra. It introduces the basic topics of interval linear algebra - regularity and singularity, full column rank, solving a linear system, deciding…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2016-02-02 Jaroslav Horáček , Milan Hladík , Michal Černý

Verification of temporal logic properties plays a crucial role in proving the desired behaviors of hybrid systems. In this paper, we propose an interval method for verifying the properties described by a bounded linear temporal logic. We…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-15 Daisuke Ishii , Naoki Yonezaki , Alexandre Goldsztejn

In this paper, we consider the solution of ill-conditioned systems of linear algebraic equations that can be determined imprecisely. To improve the stability of the solution process, we "immerse" the original imprecise linear system in an…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Sergey P. Shary

This work considers the problem of calculating an interval-valued state estimate for a nonlinear system subject to bounded inputs and measurement errors. Such state estimators are often called interval observers. Interval observers can be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-25 Stuart M. Harwood , Paul I. Barton

We consider an unconstrained continuous optimization problem where, in each iteration, gradient estimates may be arbitrarily corrupted with a probability greater than 1/2. Additionally, function value estimates may exhibit heavy-tailed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Katya Scheinberg , Miaolan Xie

We study the problem of designing interval-valued observers that simultaneously estimate the system state and learn an unknown dynamic model for partially unknown nonlinear systems with dynamic unknown inputs and bounded noise signals.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-09 Mohammad Khajenejad , Zeyuan Jin , Sze Zheng Yong

The embedded ensemble propagation approach introduced in [49] has been demonstrated to be a powerful means of reducing the computational cost of sampling-based uncertainty quantification methods, particularly on emerging computational…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-08 Marta D'Elia , Eric Phipps , Ahmad Rushdi , Mohamed Ebeida

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

In this work we develop a method for computing mathematically rigorous enclosures of some one dimensional manifolds of heteroclinic orbits for nonlinear maps. Our method exploits a rigorous curve following argument build on high order…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Maciej J. Capinski , Jason D. Mireles James

We present a method for the steady state optimization of nonlinear delay differential equations. The method ensures stability and robustness, where a system is called robust if it remains stable despite uncertain parameters. Essentially, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-14 Jonas Otten , Martin Mönnigmann

We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Joel Heinrich , Craig Blocker , John Conway , Luc Demortier , Louis Lyons , Giovanni Punzi , Pekka K. Sinervo

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental problem in the analysis and interpretation of synthetic control (SC) methods. We develop conditional prediction intervals in the SC framework, and provide conditions under which these intervals…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , Rocio Titiunik

We present a framework for computing with input data specified by intervals, representing uncertainty in the values of the input parameters. To compute a solution, the algorithm can query the input parameters that yield more refined…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Manoj Gupta , Yogish Sabharwal , Sandeep Sen

In the field of statistical learning and data analysis, estimating precision matrices (i.e., the inverse of covariance matrices) is a critical task, particularly for understanding dependency structures among variables. However, traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Zhongfeng Qin , Hao Xu , Wenhao Cui , Wan Tian

Solving a system of nonlinear inequalities is an important problem for which conventional numerical analysis has no satisfactory method. With a box-consistency algorithm one can compute a cover for the solution set to arbitrarily close…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-23 M. H. van Emden , B. Moa

This paper proposes a novel robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme for linear discrete-time systems affected by model uncertainty described by interval matrices. The key feature of the proposed method is a bound on the uncertainty…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-20 Renato Quartullo , Andrea Garulli , Mirko Leomanni