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If an experimental treatment is experienced by both treated and control group units, tests of hypotheses about causal effects may be difficult to conceptualize let alone execute. In this paper, we show how counterfactual causal models may…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-03 Jake Bowers , Mark Fredrickson , Costas Panagopoulos

This paper studies a panel data setting where the goal is to estimate causal effects of an intervention by predicting the counterfactual values of outcomes for treated units, had they not received the treatment. Several approaches have been…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-03-26 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Guido Imbens , Zhaonan Qu

Synthetic control (SC) methods are widely used to estimate the effects of policy interventions, especially those targeting specific geographic regions, referred to as units. These methods construct a weighted combination of untreated units,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Esteban Fernández-Morales , Arman Oganisian , Youjin Lee

The use of synthetic data to deidentify data and to improve predictive models is well-attested to. The augmentation of datasets using synthetically generated data is an alluring proposition: in the best case, it generates realistic data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Reid Dale , Jordan Rodu , Mike Baiocchi

Imbalanced data, where the positive samples represent only a small proportion compared to the negative samples, makes it challenging for classification problems to balance the false positive and false negative rates. A common approach to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-17 Pengfei Lyu , Zhengchi Ma , Linjun Zhang , Anru R. Zhang

In the experimental sciences, statistical power analyses are often used before data collection to determine the required sample size. However, traditional power analyses can be costly when data are difficult or expensive to collect. We…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Peiye Zhuang , Bliss Chapman , Ran Li , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

Sequential Convex Programming (SCP) has recently gained significant popularity as an effective method for solving optimal control problems and has been successfully applied in several different domains. However, the theoretical analysis of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Riccardo Bonalli , Thomas Lew , Marco Pavone

Sustained treatment strategies are common in many domains, particularly in medicine, where many treatment are delivered repeatedly over time. The effects of adherence to a treatment strategy throughout follow-up are often more relevant to…

The method of synthetic controls is widely used for evaluating causal effects of policy changes in settings with observational data. Often, researchers aim to estimate the causal impact of policy interventions on a treated unit at an…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Florian Gunsilius , David Van Dijcke

Recent advances in learning-based perception systems have led to drastic improvements in the performance of robotic systems like autonomous vehicles and surgical robots. These perception systems, however, are hard to analyze and errors in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-17 Shromona Ghosh , Yash Vardhan Pant , Hadi Ravanbakhsh , Sanjit A. Seshia

A new model for controlled sensing for multihypothesis testing is proposed and studied in the sequential setting. This new model, termed {\em controlled Markovian observation} model, exhibits a more complicated memory structure in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-01 Sirin Nitinawarat , Venupogal V. Veeravalli

The goal of a well-controlled study is to remove unwanted variation when estimating the causal effect of the intervention of interest. Experiments conducted in the basic sciences frequently achieve this goal using experimental controls,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-22 Kristen B. Hunter , Kristen Koenig , Marie-Abèle Bind

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Qiang Huang , Chuizheng Meng , Defu Cao , Biwei Huang , Yi Chang , Yan Liu

Traditional perturbative statistical disclosure control (SDC) approaches such as microaggregation, noise addition, rank swapping, etc, perturb the data in an ``ad-hoc" way in the sense that while they manage to preserve some particular…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-14 Elias Chaibub Neto

This paper presents a new dynamic approach to experiment design in settings where, due to interference or other concerns, experimental units are coarse. `Region-split' experiments on online platforms are one example of such a setting. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-16 Vivek Farias , Ciamac Moallemi , Tianyi Peng , Andrew Zheng

In stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs), the intervention is rolled out to clusters over multiple periods. A standard approach for analyzing SW-CRTs utilizes the linear mixed model, where the treatment effect is only present…

Counterfactual mean estimators such as difference-in-differences and synthetic control have grown into workhorse tools for program evaluation. Inference for these estimators is well-developed in settings where all post-treatment data is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-01 Sam van Meer , Nick W. Koning

Investigators often use multi-source data (e.g., multi-center trials, meta-analyses of randomized trials, pooled analyses of observational cohorts) to learn about the effects of interventions in subgroups of some well-defined target…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Guanbo Wang , Alexander Levis , Jon Steingrimsson , Issa Dahabreh

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

Hybrid randomized controlled trials (hybrid RCTs) integrate external control data, such as historical or concurrent data, with data from randomized trials. While numerous frequentist and Bayesian methods, such as the test-then-pool and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Han Chang Chiam , Franz König , Martin Posch