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Synthetic control methods have gained popularity among causal studies with observational data, particularly when estimating the impacts of the interventions that are implemented to a small number of large units. Implementing the synthetic…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-29 Gyuhyeong Goh , Jisang Yu

In this paper, we propose a novel method for causal inference within the framework of counterfactual and synthetic control. Matching forward the generalized synthetic control method, our instrumented principal component analysis method…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-17 Cong Wang

This paper discusses a practical approach that combines synthetic control with triple difference to address violations of the parallel trends assumption. By transforming triple difference into a DID structure, we can apply synthetic control…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-24 Castiel Chen Zhuang

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are widely considered the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of new treatments or interventions in drug development. Still, they may not be feasible in certain cases, such as with rare diseases…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Di Ran , Fanni Zhang , Sima Shahsavari , Kristine Broglio , Alasdair Henderson , Binbing Yu

The synthetic control method is often applied to problems with one treated unit and a small number of control units. A common inferential task in this setting is to test null hypotheses regarding the average treatment effect on the treated.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Lihua Lei , Timothy Sudijono

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard when estimating the average treatment effect. However, they are usually not a random sample from the real-world population because of the inclusion/exclusion rules. Meanwhile, observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 Kuan Jiang , Wenjie Hu , Shu Yang , Xinxing Lai , Xiaohua Zhou

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers. Popular methods include matching-adjusted indirect comparison…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-05 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Synthetic control (SC) models are widely used to estimate causal effects in settings with observational time-series data. To identify the causal effect on a target unit, SC requires the existence of correlated units that are not impacted by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Michael O'Riordan , Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee

The synthetic difference-in-differences method provides an efficient method to estimate a causal effect with a latent factor model. However, it relies on the use of panel data. This paper presents an adaptation of the synthetic…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-01 Yoann Morin

Studies using assays to quantify the expression of thousands of genes on tens to thousands of cell samples have been carried out for over 20 years. Such assays are based on microarrays, DNA sequencing or other molecular technologies. All…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Jiming Jiang , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch , Terence P. Speed

When there are multiple outcome series of interest, Synthetic Control analyses typically proceed by estimating separate weights for each outcome. In this paper, we instead propose estimating a common set of weights across outcomes, by…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-13 Liyang Sun , Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller

A treatment may be appropriate for some group (the ``sick" group) on whom it has a positive effect, but it can also have a detrimental effect on subjects from another group (the ``healthy" group). In a non-targeted trial both sick and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Georgios Mavroudeas , Malik Magdon-Ismail , Kristin P. Bennett , Jason Kuruzovich

The problem of multi-hypothesis testing with controlled sensing of observations is considered. The distribution of observations collected under each control is assumed to follow a single-parameter exponential family distribution. The goal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-29 Aditya Deshmukh , Srikrishna Bhashyam , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

Estimation and inference procedures for synthetic control methods often do not allow for the existence of spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for synthetic control…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Jianfei Cao , Connor Dowd

This paper notes a simple connection between synthetic control and online learning. Specifically, we recognize synthetic control as an instance of Follow-The-Leader (FTL). Standard results in online convex optimization then imply that, even…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-16 Jiafeng Chen

Treatment effect estimation involves assessing the impact of different treatments on individual outcomes. Current methods estimate Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) using observational datasets where covariates are collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Lokesh Nagalapatti , Pranava Singhal , Avishek Ghosh , Sunita Sarawagi

Suppose it is of interest to characterize effect heterogeneity of an intervention across levels of a baseline covariate using only pre- and post- intervention outcome measurements from those who received the intervention, i.e. with no…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Zach Shahn

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

MRI quality control (QC) is challenging due to unbalanced and limited datasets, as well as subjective scoring, which hinder the development of reliable automated QC systems. To address these issues, we introduce an approach that pretrains a…

In most medical research, the average treatment effect is used to evaluate a treatment's performance. However, precision medicine requires knowledge of individual treatment effects: What is the difference between a unit's measurement under…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-30 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink
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