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Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

This paper investigates the robustness and optimality of the multi-kernel correntropy (MKC) on linear regression. We first derive an upper error bound for a scalar regression problem in the presence of arbitrarily large outliers and reveal…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-12 Shilei Li , Yunjiang Lou , Dawei Shi , Lijing Li , Ling Shi

Propagating nuclear uncertainties to nucleosynthesis simulations is key to understand the impact of theoretical uncertainties on the predictions, especially for processes far from the stability region, where nuclear properties are scarcely…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-06 S. Martinet , G. Goriely , A. Choplin , L. Siess

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

A robust model predictive control scheme for a class of constrained norm-bounded uncertain discrete-time linear systems is developed under the hypothesis that only partial state measurements are available for feedback. Off-line calculations…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-07-23 Giuseppe Franzè , Massimiliano Mattei , Luciano Ollio , Valerio Scordamaglia

Stochastic processes are random variables with values in some space of paths. However, reducing a stochastic process to a path-valued random variable ignores its filtration, i.e. the flow of information carried by the process through time.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-05 Cristopher Salvi , Maud Lemercier , Chong Liu , Blanka Hovarth , Theodoros Damoulas , Terry Lyons

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is the principal control technique used in industrial applications. Although it offers distinguishable qualities that make it ideal for industrial applications, it can be questioned its robustness regarding…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-16 Alberto Zenere , Mattia Zorzi

Control of nonlinear distributed parameter systems (DPS) under uncertainty is a meaningful task for many industrial processes. However, both intrinsic uncertainty and high dimensionality of DPS require intensive computations, while…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Min Tao , Ioannis Zacharopoulos , Constantinos Theodoropoulos

Model mismatch often poses challenges in model-based controller design. This paper investigates model predictive control (MPC) of uncertain linear systems with input constraints, focusing on stability and closed-loop infinite-horizon…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Changrui Liu , Shengling Shi , Bart De Schutter

Limit cycle oscillations are phenomena arising in nonlinear dynamical systems and characterized by periodic, locally-stable, and self-sustained state trajectories. Systems controlled in a closed loop along a periodic trajectory can also be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-20 Defne E. Ozan , Mingzhou Yin , Andrea Iannelli , Roy S. Smith

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Xinjia Chen

This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-05 Jia-Jie Zhu , Krikamol Muandet , Moritz Diehl , Bernhard Schölkopf

We present a novel data-driven model predictive control (MPC) approach to control unknown nonlinear systems using only measured input-output data with closed-loop stability guarantees. Our scheme relies on the data-driven system…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Julian Berberich , Johannes Köhler , Matthias A. Müller , Frank Allgöwer

In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-17 Sotirios P. Chatzis , Dimitrios Korkinof , Yiannis Demiris

Kernel methods are powerful learning methodologies that allow to perform non-linear data analysis. Despite their popularity, they suffer from poor scalability in big data scenarios. Various approximation methods, including random feature…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-14 Bharath Sriperumbudur , Nicholas Sterge

Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…

In the realm of control systems, model predictive control (MPC) has exhibited remarkable potential; however, its reliance on accurate models and substantial computational resources has hindered its broader application, especially within…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-14 Amin Vahidi-Moghaddam , Kaian Chen , Kaixiang Zhang , Zhaojian Li , Yan Wang , Kai Wu

We provide a method to design adaptive controllers for nonlinear systems using model predictive control (MPC). By combining a certainty-equivalent MPC formulation with least-mean-square parameter adaptation, we obtain an adaptive controller…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Johannes Köhler

This work develops a stochastic model predictive controller~(SMPC) for uncertain linear systems with additive Gaussian noise subject to state and control constraints. The proposed approach is based on the recently developed finite-horizon…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-26 Kazuhide Okamoto , Panagiotis Tsiotras